TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Moravec vs Lukas Dzida 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8119111191210116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 98 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Michal Moravec at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 2–0 Lukas Dzida Lukas Dzida has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3454.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1627 vs Dzida 1636
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 60% vs Dzida 80%
Dzida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Dzida 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +2 · Dzida +3
Dzida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.727 / Dzida 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13218803
Moravec1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 55 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 36 of 47
Dzida2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog58% won 38 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back38% 13 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMoravec2wins
AwayDzida0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderMoravec leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMoravecDzidaM − DBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.036.5+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 403 vs 125 / 22551.1%55.6%206 / 403 vs 125 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.73/Dzida 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 16 · 12:10M. Moravec351111133L. Dzida2999110
WAug 24 · 14:15M. Moravec47911115113L. Dzida4411861182
M. Moravec10
WSep 29 · 12:49M. Moravec1.443111411153E. Precek2.63117166132WSep 29 · 11:40E. Precek2.25118411M. Moravec1.5751111113LSep 29 · 11:10A. Cizek2.5015118113M. Moravec1.501341191LSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113WSep 25 · 20:40M. Moravec1.5311101318113D. Vitasek2.381312111682WSep 25 · 19:40A. Kanak2.001151111122M. Moravec1.73911135143WSep 25 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.38111181392M. Moravec1.53681115113LSep 25 · 18:10M. Moravec1.368690A. Cizek3.001111113WSep 22 · 13:09M. Moravec1.401111113L. Kantor2.759440WSep 22 · 11:40L. Kantor1.809930M. Moravec1.911111113
L. Dzida10
WSep 28 · 12:39L. Dzida1.50145115113B. Mrowetz2.50121181132WSep 28 · 11:40B. Mrowetz1.531312651L. Dzida2.38111411113WSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak2.0089111142L. Dzida1.73111198113LSep 28 · 10:10L. Dzida2.00118741R. Benes1.7361111113WSep 27 · 17:09J. Volny2.2511771192L. Dzida1.57611119113WSep 27 · 15:45T. Molin3.406570L. Dzida1.301111113WSep 27 · 15:15A. Cizek2.00911271L. Dzida1.7311711113LSep 27 · 14:15L. Dzida1.4011912782J. Volny2.759111011113WSep 27 · 13:17D. Velky Jr1.73117991L. Dzida2.0091111113LSep 27 · 11:45D. Velky Jr1.83141189113L. Dzida1.83126111182
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