TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Cizek vs Lukas Dzida 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117211711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 7-9
Point 67 set 4, 7-9 — our read held Ales Cizek at 54.5%
67 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ales Cizek 1–1 Lukas Dzida Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:25What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1546 vs Dzida 1576
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 80% vs Dzida 60%
Cizek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 80% vs Dzida 60%
Cizek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +1 · Dzida -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.00 / Dzida 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Dzida)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13205822
Cizek2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 47
Dzida1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 46 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 28 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeCizek1wins
AwayDzida1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricCizekDzidaC − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match42.042.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 498 vs 119 / 21847.8%54.6%238 / 498 vs 119 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaCizek 2.00/Dzida 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek3911611113L. Dzida32811851
LAug 22 · 13:45A. Cizek4581261182L. Dzida521110119113
A. Cizek10
LSep 27 · 16:39A. Cizek2.1067111122T. Molin1.67111169113LSep 27 · 16:15J. Volny2.201113113A. Cizek1.6181140WSep 27 · 13:45T. Molin2.007118121A. Cizek1.7311911143LSep 26 · 13:15A. Cizek1.931111211102P. Vinansky1.77132118123WSep 26 · 11:45A. Cizek2.75511811113P. Vinansky1.4011611642WSep 26 · 10:45A. Cizek1.67141011113T. Lysek2.101212661WSep 26 · 09:45A. Cizek1.7391112153J. Volny2.0011310131WSep 25 · 21:10A. Kanak1.53811391A. Cizek2.3811911113WSep 25 · 20:10A. Cizek1.911311113D. Vitasek1.8011660LSep 25 · 18:40A. Kanak1.571217123A. Cizek2.251015100
L. Dzida10
WSep 27 · 15:45T. Molin3.406570L. Dzida1.301111113LSep 27 · 14:15L. Dzida1.4011912782J. Volny2.759111011113WSep 27 · 13:17D. Jr1.73117991L. Dzida2.0091111113LSep 27 · 11:45D. Jr1.83141189113L. Dzida1.83126111182WSep 27 · 11:15D. Pawlik2.009511101L. Dzida1.7311117123WSep 27 · 10:15L. Dzida1.7381111113E. Precek2.00117751WSep 24 · 13:10R. Sedlacek1.67951251L. Dzida2.10111110113LSep 24 · 12:10R. Sedlacek1.8011512113L. Dzida1.914111021WSep 24 · 11:10L. Dzida1.831111123D. Pawlik1.8348100WSep 24 · 09:40T. Krenek1.5788130L. Dzida2.251111153
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