TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Moravec vs Daniel Vitasek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113101213111816118
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 77.3% is still 77.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
77.3%
77.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 18-16
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 123 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Michal Moravec at 77.3%
123 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 8–1 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Moravec beat Vitasek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Moravec
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1645 vs Vitasek 1445
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Vitasek 20%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 80% vs Vitasek 20%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +2 · Vitasek -4
Vitasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.53 / Vitasek 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Moravec)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13196804
Moravec1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 53 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Vitasek2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 87 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMoravec8wins
AwayVitasek1wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMoravec leads 8–1, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec66.7%2 of 3
AwayVitasek0%0 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec3Vitasek6n = 9Vitasek took 6 of 9
S2Moravec6Vitasek3n = 9Moravec took 6 of 9
S3Moravec5Vitasek4n = 9Moravec took 5 of 9
S4Moravec7Vitasek1n = 8Moravec took 7 of 8
S5Moravec4Vitasek0n = 4Moravec took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMoravecVitasekM − VBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match45.639.9+5.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 399 vs 301 / 63751.1%47.3%204 / 399 vs 301 / 637Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.53/Vitasek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 25 · 20:40M. Moravec6311101318113D. Vitasek601312111682
WSep 25 · 19:10M. Moravec51681115113D. Vitasek52111181392
WAug 12 · 20:39M. Moravec45111112113D. Vitasek36771481
WAug 12 · 19:45M. Moravec496111011113D. Vitasek4211412872
WMay 14 · 19:40M. Moravec4181111113D. Vitasek28115841
WJan 24 · 21:39M. Moravec351111133D. Vitasek2384110
LJan 24 · 19:40M. Moravec381368111D. Vitasek46111111133
WJan 23 · 17:10M. Moravec47611811113D. Vitasek3811211862
WDec 18 · 17:40M. Moravec4181111113D. Vitasek34117971
M. Moravec10
WSep 25 · 19:40A. Kanak2.001151111122M. Moravec1.73911135143WSep 25 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.38111181392M. Moravec1.53681115113LSep 25 · 18:10M. Moravec1.368690A. Cizek3.001111113WSep 22 · 13:09M. Moravec1.401111113L. Kantor2.759440WSep 22 · 11:40L. Kantor1.809930M. Moravec1.911111113WSep 22 · 11:10M. Raska2.2088130M. Moravec1.611111153WSep 22 · 10:10M. Moravec1.441111143A. Cizek2.6366120WSep 22 · 08:53M. Moravec2.001111113R. Benes1.732460WSep 22 · 08:15M. Moravec2.00111182113T. Kindl1.7397111182LSep 22 · 06:45T. Krenek1.8081118113M. Moravec1.911171691
D. Vitasek10
LSep 25 · 20:10A. Cizek1.911311113D. Vitasek1.8011660LSep 25 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.38111181392M. Moravec1.53681115113LSep 25 · 17:40A. Kanak1.67111112133D. Vitasek2.1061310111LSep 22 · 20:38D. Vitasek2.2561070T. Fojtik1.571112113WSep 22 · 20:15T. Fojtik1.806780D. Vitasek1.911111113LSep 22 · 19:15D. Vitasek1.8031251182J. Travnicek1.911110119113LSep 22 · 17:45D. Stusek1.2811119113D. Vitasek3.50971171WSep 20 · 20:54J. Travnicek1.839490D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 20 · 20:15J. Travnicek1.9110111110113D. Vitasek1.8012851282LSep 20 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.6351211121J. Skvrna1.4411148143
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