TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kanak vs Lukas Dzida 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111315411––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 60 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 1–3 Lukas Dzida Adam Kanak has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Dzida
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1540 vs Dzida 1547
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 60% vs Dzida 20%
Kanak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 50% vs Dzida 20%
Kanak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak +1 · Dzida -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 2.00 / Dzida 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dzida)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226930
Kanak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog60% won 32 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back39% 10 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Dzida1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 53 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKanak1wins
AwayDzida3wins
4 of 4 to a deciderDzida leads 3–1, and 4 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanak33.3%1 of 3
AwayDzidan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak3Dzida1n = 4Kanak took 3 of 4
S2Kanak0Dzida4n = 4Dzida took 4 of 4
S3Kanak4Dzida0n = 4Kanak took 4 of 4
S4Kanak1Dzida3n = 4Dzida took 3 of 4
S5Kanak1Dzida3n = 4Dzida took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away375%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKanakDzidaK − DBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match45.047.8−2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 151 vs 126 / 23454.3%53.9%82 / 151 vs 126 / 234Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaKanak 2.00/Dzida 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak4389111142L. Dzida50111198113
LAug 25 · 16:50A. Kanak4311811852L. Dzida47611811113
WAug 25 · 14:40A. Kanak50115119143L. Dzida47911411122
LJul 13 · 12:10A. Kanak4411411992L. Dzida47511911113
A. Kanak10
WOct 1 · 13:45A. Kanak1.53101113113V. Konvicka2.381271191LSep 28 · 17:10A. Kanak2.0061260R. Benes1.731114113WSep 28 · 16:10A. Kanak1.671112173D. Pawlik2.10810150WSep 28 · 14:40K. Kleprlik1.44811381A. Kanak2.6311111113LSep 28 · 14:10R. Benes1.737111111113A. Kanak2.0011171362LSep 28 · 13:10A. Kanak1.80117581R. Benes1.9171111113WSep 28 · 12:10R. Benes1.91791171A. Kanak1.8011115113LSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak2.0089111142L. Dzida1.73111198113WSep 28 · 09:40B. Mrowetz1.4410990A. Kanak2.631211113LSep 27 · 08:39J. Skalicky1.671111153A. Kanak2.1069130
L. Dzida10
LOct 1 · 14:15M. Moravec1.6761111113L. Dzida2.10119991WOct 1 · 12:34T. Kindl1.531141061L. Dzida2.3871112113LOct 1 · 12:10L. Dzida1.834890T. Kindl1.831111113LOct 1 · 10:40D. Velky Jr1.911511133L. Dzida1.80138110LOct 1 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.831111115113L. Dzida1.8385131162LSep 30 · 12:38T. Kindl1.9161112113L. Dzida1.801181061LSep 30 · 12:10T. Kindl2.001112133L. Dzida1.73610110LSep 30 · 11:10L. Dzida2.008650R. Benes1.731111113LSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec1.73891112113L. Dzida2.00111191062WSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak2.0089111142L. Dzida1.73111198113
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