TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dzida vs Radek Benes 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611511––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:07 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 52 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 0–2 Radek Benes Lukas Dzida has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1626 vs Benes 1620
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 60% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 70% vs Benes 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 2.00 / Benes 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Benes)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13219399
Dzida2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog58% won 38 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back38% 13 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Benes1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 180 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it78% 121 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDzida0wins
AwayBenes2wins
Benes leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricDzidaBenesD − BBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match24.536.0−11.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 226 vs 520 / 99855.3%52.1%125 / 226 vs 520 / 998Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesDzida 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 28 · 10:10L. Dzida30118741R. Benes3961111113
LAug 13 · 11:15L. Dzida196580R. Benes331111113
L. Dzida10
LSep 30 · 12:10T. Kindl2.001112133L. Dzida1.73610110LSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec1.73891112113L. Dzida2.00111191062WSep 28 · 12:39L. Dzida1.50145115113B. Mrowetz2.50121181132WSep 28 · 11:40B. Mrowetz1.531312651L. Dzida2.38111411113WSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak2.0089111142L. Dzida1.73111198113LSep 28 · 10:10L. Dzida2.00118741R. Benes1.7361111113WSep 27 · 17:09J. Volny2.2511771192L. Dzida1.57611119113WSep 27 · 15:45T. Molin3.406570L. Dzida1.301111113WSep 27 · 15:15A. Cizek2.00911271L. Dzida1.7311711113LSep 27 · 14:15L. Dzida1.4011912782J. Volny2.759111011113
R. Benes10
LSep 30 · 11:40M. Moravec2.001113113R. Benes1.7361180WSep 30 · 10:10R. Benes1.83121210113T. Kindl1.8310101291LSep 30 · 09:09R. Sedlacek2.001191110113R. Benes1.7351161292LSep 30 · 07:40R. Sedlacek2.0041112113R. Benes1.731171061WSep 30 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.2012101171R. Benes1.6114126113WSep 30 · 06:10R. Benes1.80101111123T. Kindl1.911296101WSep 29 · 09:18R. Benes1.6711611113I. Heuman2.10211891WSep 29 · 08:10R. Benes1.67181110143D. Pawlik2.1016712121WSep 29 · 06:40J. Travnicek2.25113681R. Benes1.5781111113WSep 28 · 10:10L. Dzida2.00118741R. Benes1.7361111113
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