TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Moravec vs Radek Benes 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161311118––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Radek Benes at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 29–25 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 25 of their 54 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 11:3754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-25 in 54
Moravec
Correct
gap of 4 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1645 vs Benes 1634
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Benes 60%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Benes 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +4 · Benes +2
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.00 / Benes 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13219265
Moravec2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 41 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back27% 15 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Benes1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 180 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it78% 121 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec6wins
AwayBenes4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec66.7%4 of 6
AwayBenes50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec6Benes4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Moravec7Benes3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S3Moravec4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Moravec2Benes4n = 6Benes took 4 of 6
S5Moravec3Benes2n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecBenesM − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.839.8+1.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 405 vs 521 / 99951.4%52.2%208 / 405 vs 521 / 999Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 08:53M. Moravec331111113R. Benes122460
WSep 22 · 06:15M. Moravec46711116113R. Benes4611691192
LSep 21 · 10:15M. Moravec48111296102R. Benes539101111123
LAug 31 · 12:10M. Moravec236980R. Benes331111113
LAug 29 · 16:15M. Moravec4811814872R. Benes516111211113
WAug 3 · 12:45M. Moravec545141012133R. Benes5611121210112
WAug 3 · 10:15M. Moravec341111123R. Benes2495100
LJul 28 · 10:10M. Moravec2810990R. Benes341211113
WJul 27 · 13:20M. Moravec50111549113R. Benes53913111192
WJul 27 · 10:10M. Moravec4413119113R. Benes361171171
M. Moravec10
WSep 30 · 10:40M. Moravec1.80119116113T. Kindl1.9191171192WSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec1.73891112113L. Dzida2.00111191062WSep 29 · 12:49M. Moravec1.443111411153E. Precek2.63117166132WSep 29 · 11:40E. Precek2.25118411M. Moravec1.5751111113LSep 29 · 11:10A. Cizek2.5015118113M. Moravec1.501341191LSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113WSep 25 · 20:40M. Moravec1.5311101318113D. Vitasek2.381312111682WSep 25 · 19:40A. Kanak2.001151111122M. Moravec1.73911135143WSep 25 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.38111181392M. Moravec1.53681115113LSep 25 · 18:10M. Moravec1.368690A. Cizek3.001111113
R. Benes10
WSep 30 · 11:10L. Dzida2.008650R. Benes1.731111113WSep 30 · 10:10R. Benes1.83121210113T. Kindl1.8310101291LSep 30 · 09:09R. Sedlacek2.001191110113R. Benes1.7351161292LSep 30 · 07:40R. Sedlacek2.0041112113R. Benes1.731171061WSep 30 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.2012101171R. Benes1.6114126113WSep 30 · 06:10R. Benes1.80101111123T. Kindl1.911296101WSep 29 · 09:18R. Benes1.6711611113I. Heuman2.10211891WSep 29 · 08:10R. Benes1.67181110143D. Pawlik2.1016712121WSep 29 · 06:40J. Travnicek2.25113681R. Benes1.5781111113LSep 29 · 06:10I. Heuman2.20115711113R. Benes1.6141111592
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