TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dzida vs Tomas Kindl 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kindl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Tomas Kindl below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Kindl at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 5–8 Tomas Kindl Lukas Dzida has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kindl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Kindl
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1558 vs Kindl 1534
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 0% vs Kindl 60%
Kindl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 30% vs Kindl 50%
Kindl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -6 · Kindl -1
Dzida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kindl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.833 / Kindl 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kindl)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13224788
Dzida1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kindl1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDzida3wins
AwayKindl7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKindl leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida40%2 of 5
AwayKindl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida5Kindl5n = 10split evenly
S2Dzida1Kindl9n = 10Kindl took 9 of 10
S3Dzida6Kindl4n = 10Dzida took 6 of 10
S4Dzida3Kindl5n = 8Kindl took 5 of 8
S5Dzida1Kindl2n = 3Kindl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDzidaKindlD − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.641.2−2.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaKindlBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 231 vs 224 / 45254.1%49.6%125 / 231 vs 224 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.141.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KindlDzida 1.83/Kindl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kindl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kindl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 12:38L. Dzida351181061T. Kindl4061112113
LSep 30 · 12:10L. Dzida27610110T. Kindl361112133
WSep 16 · 12:40L. Dzida47581111123T. Kindl49111189102
WSep 16 · 11:10L. Dzida3911611113T. Kindl29711831
LSep 10 · 10:40L. Dzida30101190T. Kindl361213113
LSep 6 · 15:40L. Dzida4911913882T. Kindl528111111113
LSep 4 · 09:20L. Dzida4413611592T. Kindl531111911113
WSep 4 · 08:15L. Dzida43111011113T. Kindl36812791
LSep 3 · 08:40L. Dzida38911991T. Kindl4211911113
LSep 3 · 08:10L. Dzida34681191T. Kindl3911116113
L. Dzida10
WOct 1 · 12:34T. Kindl1.531141061L. Dzida2.3871112113LOct 1 · 10:40D. Velky Jr1.911511133L. Dzida1.80138110LOct 1 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.831111115113L. Dzida1.8385131162LSep 30 · 12:38T. Kindl1.9161112113L. Dzida1.801181061LSep 30 · 12:10T. Kindl2.001112133L. Dzida1.73610110LSep 30 · 11:10L. Dzida2.008650R. Benes1.731111113LSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec1.73891112113L. Dzida2.00111191062WSep 28 · 12:39L. Dzida1.50145115113B. Mrowetz2.50121181132WSep 28 · 11:40B. Mrowetz1.531312651L. Dzida2.38111411113WSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak2.0089111142L. Dzida1.73111198113
T. Kindl10
LOct 1 · 12:34T. Kindl1.531141061L. Dzida2.3871112113LOct 1 · 11:10T. Kindl2.109940B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 09:40D. Velky Jr1.67911190T. Kindl2.101113213WSep 30 · 12:38T. Kindl1.9161112113L. Dzida1.801181061WSep 30 · 12:10T. Kindl2.001112133L. Dzida1.73610110LSep 30 · 10:40M. Moravec1.80119116113T. Kindl1.9191171192LSep 30 · 10:10R. Benes1.83121210113T. Kindl1.8310101291LSep 30 · 08:38T. Kindl1.737111111182D. Pawlik2.00118138203WSep 30 · 08:10T. Kindl1.9113126113D. Pawlik1.8011101161WSep 30 · 06:40R. Sedlacek1.61117111162T. Kindl2.20411139113
Upcoming Matches
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T. Kindl
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