TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Kindl vs Dominik Pawlik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71111811131181820
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 18-20
Point 118 set 5, 18-20
118 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 9–9 Dominik Pawlik Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kindl beat Pawlik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 1.727 / Pawlik 2.00
TT Cup · #13220979
Kindl1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 55 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it73% 37 of 51
Pawlik2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 55 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKindl5wins
AwayPawlik5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl71.4%5 of 7
AwayPawlik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl7Pawlik3n = 10Kindl took 7 of 10
S2Kindl5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S3Kindl5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kindl4Pawlik4n = 8split evenly
S5Kindl1Pawlik3n = 4Pawlik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKindlPawlikK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.8−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 445 vs 248 / 51549.7%48.2%221 / 445 vs 248 / 515Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KindlKindl 1.73/Pawlik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
2–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 08:10T. Kindl4213126113D. Pawlik3811101161
LSep 16 · 11:40T. Kindl5014117992D. Pawlik531281111113
LSep 3 · 06:40T. Kindl1954100D. Pawlik341111123
WAug 21 · 08:43T. Kindl4011711113D. Pawlik34811961
WAug 21 · 07:45T. Kindl4511914113D. Pawlik419111291
LAug 19 · 08:48T. Kindl4411413792D. Pawlik517111111113
LAug 19 · 06:45T. Kindl398711131D. Pawlik4611119153
LAug 17 · 11:40T. Kindl44811411102D. Pawlik47119114123
WAug 6 · 12:45T. Kindl471111104113D. Pawlik4589121152
WAug 6 · 09:45T. Kindl331111113D. Pawlik196490
T. Kindl10
WSep 30 · 08:10T. Kindl1.9113126113D. Pawlik1.8011101161WSep 30 · 06:40R. Sedlacek1.61117111162T. Kindl2.20411139113LSep 30 · 06:10R. Benes1.80101111123T. Kindl1.911296101LSep 24 · 08:45T. Krenek1.63121111113T. Kindl2.13148381LSep 24 · 08:10R. Sedlacek1.73131113113T. Kindl2.001141531LSep 24 · 07:10T. Kindl1.919880D. Velky Jr1.801111113LSep 24 · 05:40T. Krenek1.671111811113T. Kindl2.1098111372WSep 22 · 09:24T. Krenek2.1010911101T. Kindl1.6712117123LSep 22 · 08:15M. Moravec2.00111182113T. Kindl1.7397111182WSep 22 · 07:15T. Kindl1.91111189113R. Benes1.8059111192
D. Pawlik10
LSep 30 · 08:10T. Kindl1.9113126113D. Pawlik1.8011101161LSep 30 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.2012101171R. Benes1.6114126113LSep 30 · 05:40R. Sedlacek1.8312911113D. Pawlik1.831011871LSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560LSep 29 · 12:10D. Pawlik2.003116111A. Cizek1.7311611133WSep 29 · 10:40E. Precek1.6757100D. Pawlik2.101111123WSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113WSep 29 · 08:48J. Travnicek1.50861181D. Pawlik2.5011119113LSep 29 · 08:10R. Benes1.67181110143D. Pawlik2.1016712121LSep 29 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.20791181I. Heuman1.6111118113
Upcoming Matches
T. Kindl
D. Pawlik
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