TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Pawlik vs Ales Cizek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3111166111113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Ales Cizek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 72 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Ales Cizek at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 8–9 Ales Cizek Dominik Pawlik has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cizek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1485 vs Cizek 1516
Cizek
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 60% vs Cizek 20%
Pawlik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 30% vs Cizek 50%
Cizek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +3 · Cizek +1
Pawlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Cizek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 2.00 / Cizek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cizek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13213906
Pawlik2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 52 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 51
Cizek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 50 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it84% 37 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik4wins
AwayCizek6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderCizek leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik60%3 of 5
AwayCizek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik5Cizek5n = 10split evenly
S2Pawlik3Cizek7n = 10Cizek took 7 of 10
S3Pawlik4Cizek6n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik6Cizek3n = 9Pawlik took 6 of 9
S5Pawlik3Cizek4n = 7Cizek took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikCizekP − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.541.7+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 510 vs 239 / 50348.6%47.5%248 / 510 vs 239 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CizekPawlik 2.00/Cizek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 08:15D. Pawlik47111196102A. Cizek44551111123
LAug 2 · 17:19D. Pawlik4151181162A. Cizek47117117113
WAug 2 · 15:45D. Pawlik46117116113A. Cizek4491161172
LMay 27 · 12:45D. Pawlik50117913102A. Cizek516111111123
WMay 27 · 10:10D. Pawlik4111118113A. Cizek26861111
LMay 8 · 14:15D. Pawlik236980A. Cizek331111113
LApr 4 · 06:45D. Pawlik4275111182A. Cizek42111136113
WMar 28 · 19:15D. Pawlik49971111113A. Cizek4711118982
WMar 28 · 18:20D. Pawlik49119611123A. Cizek43611115102
LMar 28 · 17:15D. Pawlik377911101A. Cizek4011116123
D. Pawlik10
LSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560WSep 29 · 10:40E. Precek1.6757100D. Pawlik2.101111123WSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113WSep 29 · 08:48J. Travnicek1.50861181D. Pawlik2.5011119113LSep 29 · 08:10R. Benes1.67181110143D. Pawlik2.1016712121LSep 29 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.20791181I. Heuman1.6111118113LSep 29 · 05:40J. Travnicek1.5741211113D. Pawlik2.251110991LSep 28 · 16:38K. Kleprlik1.361111133D. Pawlik3.0074110LSep 28 · 16:10A. Kanak1.671112173D. Pawlik2.10810150LSep 28 · 15:10D. Pawlik1.911171071R. Benes1.8071112113
A. Cizek10
WSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560WSep 29 · 11:10A. Cizek2.5015118113M. Moravec1.501341191LSep 29 · 09:40E. Precek1.8011314113A. Cizek1.918111261LSep 27 · 16:39A. Cizek2.1067111122T. Molin1.67111169113LSep 27 · 16:15J. Volny2.201113113A. Cizek1.6181140LSep 27 · 15:15A. Cizek2.00911271L. Dzida1.7311711113WSep 27 · 13:45T. Molin2.007118121A. Cizek1.7311911143LSep 26 · 13:15A. Cizek1.931111211102P. Vinansky1.77132118123WSep 26 · 11:45A. Cizek2.75511811113P. Vinansky1.4011611642WSep 26 · 10:45A. Cizek1.67141011113T. Lysek2.101212661
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