TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Cizek vs Dominik Pawlik 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115116––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6
51 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 10–8 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Cizek beat Pawlik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.83 / Pawlik 1.83
TT Cup · #13216765
Cizek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pawlik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek6wins
AwayPawlik4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderCizek leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek80%4 of 5
AwayPawlik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Cizek6Pawlik4n = 10Cizek took 6 of 10
S3Cizek7Pawlik3n = 10Cizek took 7 of 10
S4Cizek3Pawlik6n = 9Pawlik took 6 of 9
S5Cizek4Pawlik3n = 7Cizek took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekPawlikC − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.841.9−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 504 vs 248 / 51147.6%48.5%240 / 504 vs 248 / 511Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.83/Pawlik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–0
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 12:10A. Cizek4111611133D. Pawlik313116111
WAug 29 · 08:15A. Cizek44551111123D. Pawlik47111196102
WAug 2 · 17:19A. Cizek47117117113D. Pawlik4151181162
LAug 2 · 15:45A. Cizek4491161172D. Pawlik46117116113
WMay 27 · 12:45A. Cizek516111111123D. Pawlik50117913102
LMay 27 · 10:10A. Cizek26861111D. Pawlik4111118113
WMay 8 · 14:15A. Cizek331111113D. Pawlik236980
WApr 4 · 06:45A. Cizek42111136113D. Pawlik4275111182
LMar 28 · 19:15A. Cizek4711118982D. Pawlik49971111113
LMar 28 · 18:20A. Cizek43611115102D. Pawlik49119611123
A. Cizek10
WSep 29 · 12:10D. Pawlik2.003116111A. Cizek1.7311611133WSep 29 · 11:10A. Cizek2.5015118113M. Moravec1.501341191LSep 29 · 09:40E. Precek1.8011314113A. Cizek1.918111261LSep 27 · 16:39A. Cizek2.1067111122T. Molin1.67111169113LSep 27 · 16:15J. Volny2.201113113A. Cizek1.6181140LSep 27 · 15:15A. Cizek2.00911271L. Dzida1.7311711113WSep 27 · 13:45T. Molin2.007118121A. Cizek1.7311911143LSep 26 · 13:15A. Cizek1.931111211102P. Vinansky1.77132118123WSep 26 · 11:45A. Cizek2.75511811113P. Vinansky1.4011611642WSep 26 · 10:45A. Cizek1.67141011113T. Lysek2.101212661
D. Pawlik10
LSep 29 · 12:10D. Pawlik2.003116111A. Cizek1.7311611133WSep 29 · 10:40E. Precek1.6757100D. Pawlik2.101111123WSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113WSep 29 · 08:48J. Travnicek1.50861181D. Pawlik2.5011119113LSep 29 · 08:10R. Benes1.67181110143D. Pawlik2.1016712121LSep 29 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.20791181I. Heuman1.6111118113LSep 29 · 05:40J. Travnicek1.5741211113D. Pawlik2.251110991LSep 28 · 16:38K. Kleprlik1.361111133D. Pawlik3.0074110LSep 28 · 16:10A. Kanak1.671112173D. Pawlik2.10810150LSep 28 · 15:10D. Pawlik1.911171071R. Benes1.8071112113
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