TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kanak vs Michal Moravec 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113117911117119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:40 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Michal Moravec at 56.5%
100 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 0–1 Michal Moravec Adam Kanak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4056.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1527 vs Moravec 1637
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 60% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 50% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak -1 · Moravec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 2.00 / Moravec 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Moravec)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226958
Kanak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog60% won 32 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back39% 10 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Moravec1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKanak0wins
AwayMoravec1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMoravec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKanakMoravecK − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.052.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 152 vs 210 / 40954%51.3%82 / 152 vs 210 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecKanak 2.00/Moravec 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 25 · 19:40A. Kanak501151111122M. Moravec52911135143
A. Kanak10
LOct 1 · 14:45A. Kanak2.0061340L. Dzida1.731115113WOct 1 · 13:45A. Kanak1.53101113113V. Konvicka2.381271191LSep 28 · 17:10A. Kanak2.0061260R. Benes1.731114113WSep 28 · 16:10A. Kanak1.671112173D. Pawlik2.10810150WSep 28 · 14:40K. Kleprlik1.44811381A. Kanak2.6311111113LSep 28 · 14:10R. Benes1.737111111113A. Kanak2.0011171362LSep 28 · 13:10A. Kanak1.80117581R. Benes1.9171111113WSep 28 · 12:10R. Benes1.91791171A. Kanak1.8011115113LSep 28 · 11:10A. Kanak2.0089111142L. Dzida1.73111198113WSep 28 · 09:40B. Mrowetz1.4410990A. Kanak2.631211113
M. Moravec10
LOct 1 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.10111112113M. Moravec1.671391091WOct 1 · 14:15M. Moravec1.6761111113L. Dzida2.10119991LSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133WSep 30 · 11:40M. Moravec2.001113113R. Benes1.7361180WSep 30 · 10:40M. Moravec1.80119116113T. Kindl1.9191171192WSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec1.73891112113L. Dzida2.00111191062WSep 29 · 12:49M. Moravec1.443111411153E. Precek2.63117166132WSep 29 · 11:40E. Precek2.25118411M. Moravec1.5751111113LSep 29 · 11:10A. Cizek2.5015118113M. Moravec1.501341191LSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113
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