TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Moravec vs Michal Raska 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111012114119116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Michal Raska below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-6
Point 90 set 5, 9-6 · our read held Michal Moravec at 63.6%
90 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Moravec 3–3 Michal Raska Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3463.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1640 vs Raska 1545
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Raska 80%
Raska
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 60% vs Raska 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -1 · Raska +3
Raska
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.533 / Raska 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Moravec)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13237637
Moravec1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 59 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it74% 37 of 50
Raska2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 70 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayRaska3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec100%3 of 3
AwayRaska100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec3Raska3n = 6split evenly
S2Moravec3Raska3n = 6split evenly
S3Moravec4Raska2n = 6Moravec took 4 of 6
S4Moravec2Raska3n = 5Raska took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMoravecRaskaM − RBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match37.839.2−1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecRaskaBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 412 vs 251 / 52351.5%48%212 / 412 vs 251 / 523Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.53/Raska 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 22 · 11:10M. Moravec371111153M. Raska2988130
LJul 24 · 17:18M. Moravec4371111772M. Raska42114511113
WJul 24 · 15:15M. Moravec481110511113M. Raska4661211892
WApr 19 · 20:55M. Moravec3911611113M. Raska36811981
LApr 19 · 18:15M. Moravec29741171M. Raska4011117113
LMar 24 · 11:10M. Moravec31711941M. Raska4211911113
M. Moravec10
WOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192LOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113WOct 1 · 17:00V. Konvicka2.0011611151M. Moravec1.7391113173LOct 1 · 15:45A. Kanak2.001111911113M. Moravec1.7313711792LOct 1 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.10111112113M. Moravec1.671391091WOct 1 · 14:15M. Moravec1.6761111113L. Dzida2.10119991LSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133WSep 30 · 11:40M. Moravec2.001113113R. Benes1.7361180WSep 30 · 10:40M. Moravec1.80119116113T. Kindl1.9191171192WSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec1.73891112113L. Dzida2.00111191062
M. Raska10
WOct 3 · 14:10R. Sedlacek1.476101181M. Raska2.5011127113WOct 3 · 12:37M. Raska1.801111113J. Volny1.919540WOct 3 · 12:10J. Volny1.806920M. Raska1.911111113LOct 3 · 11:10M. Raska2.38113111192A. Kanak1.53911713113WOct 3 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.50911101172M. Raska2.50117128113LOct 2 · 09:20M. Raska2.3891090E. Precek1.531112113WOct 2 · 08:15L. Lasota2.0010950M. Raska1.731211113LOct 2 · 07:15M. Raska2.20411651E. Precek1.6111411113WOct 2 · 05:45R. Sedlacek1.36117101132M. Raska3.00811127113WSep 30 · 20:50M. Raska1.57121111113K. Zeman2.25142461
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.