TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Raska vs Erik Precek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012911––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:05 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Raska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Raska above · Erik Precek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 62 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Michal Raska at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Michal Raska 4–5 Erik Precek Michal Raska has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Precek beat Raska 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0554.0%Our read42.1%to break even at 2.375
clears by 11.9pp42.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.375 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Precek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Raska 1521 vs Precek 1542
Precek
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Raska 80% vs Precek 60%
Raska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Raska 70% vs Precek 30%
Raska
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Raska +1 · Precek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Raska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 2.375 / Precek 1.533
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Raska)+11.9pp
TT Cup · #13232078
Raska2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 69 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Precek1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite45% won 39 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRaska4wins
AwayPrecek5wins
1 of 9 to a deciderPrecek leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska60%3 of 5
AwayPrecek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska5Precek4n = 9Raska took 5 of 9
S2Raska5Precek4n = 9Raska took 5 of 9
S3Raska3Precek6n = 9Precek took 6 of 9
S4Raska2Precek5n = 7Precek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricRaskaPrecekR − PBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match35.737.7−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaPrecekBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 517 vs 236 / 50447.8%46.8%247 / 517 vs 236 / 504Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RaskaRaska 2.38/Precek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Raska · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Precek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 2 · 07:15M. Raska26411651E. Precek3711411113
LAug 15 · 14:40M. Raska239680E. Precek331111113
LMay 3 · 08:15M. Raska31119381E. Precek3741111113
LJan 10 · 18:15M. Raska3711106101E. Precek4491211123
WJan 10 · 17:15M. Raska4111117123E. Precek388911101
WJan 2 · 13:45M. Raska4611914123E. Precek4291112101
WJan 2 · 12:10M. Raska48711116133E. Precek47116811112
WDec 22 · 09:40M. Raska341211113E. Precek1810170
LDec 22 · 08:10M. Raska355111181E. Precek4311813113
M. Raska10
WOct 2 · 08:15L. Lasota2.0010950M. Raska1.731211113LOct 2 · 07:15M. Raska2.20411651E. Precek1.6111411113WOct 2 · 05:45R. Sedlacek1.36117101132M. Raska3.00811127113WSep 30 · 20:50M. Raska1.57121111113K. Zeman2.25142461WSep 30 · 19:45F. Theodor1.5048111132M. Raska2.50111199113WSep 30 · 19:15K. Zeman2.105480M. Raska1.671111113LSep 30 · 18:15M. Raska1.809660V. Reska1.911111113LSep 28 · 09:15M. Raska2.75811821R. Sedlacek1.4011811113WSep 28 · 08:10D. Vitasek1.83121161572M. Raska1.831471113113WSep 28 · 07:10M. Raska2.751110115113R. Sedlacek1.4091291182
E. Precek10
WOct 2 · 07:45R. Sedlacek1.53611118102E. Precek2.38113811123WOct 2 · 07:15M. Raska2.20411651E. Precek1.6111411113LOct 2 · 06:15E. Precek1.6111101151L. Lasota2.2041213113WOct 1 · 08:38R. Benes1.441061251E. Precek2.63121110113LOct 1 · 08:10R. Benes1.6111114133E. Precek2.209911111LOct 1 · 07:10E. Precek2.2011611121J. Krupnik1.6131113143LOct 1 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.731211119113E. Precek2.00107131192LSep 29 · 12:49M. Moravec1.443111411153E. Precek2.63117166132LSep 29 · 11:40E. Precek2.25118411M. Moravec1.5751111113LSep 29 · 10:40E. Precek1.6757100D. Pawlik2.101111123
Upcoming Matches
M. Raska
Nothing scheduled
E. Precek
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