TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Benes vs Erik Precek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191194111311––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:08 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeRadek Benes to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Erik Precek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Radek Benes at 58.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 16–14 Erik Precek Erik Precek has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:0858.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Benes
Correct
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1634 vs Precek 1526
Benes
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 60% vs Precek 0%
Benes
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 60% vs Precek 30%
Benes
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -1 · Precek -5
Precek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Benes) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Precek form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.615 / Precek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Benes)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224988
Benes1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 183 of 318
Up 2–0, closes it94% 78 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it77% 123 of 159
Precek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 64 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayPrecek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes80%4 of 5
AwayPrecek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes5Precek5n = 10split evenly
S2Benes3Precek7n = 10Precek took 7 of 10
S3Benes5Precek5n = 10split evenly
S4Benes4Precek3n = 7Benes took 4 of 7
S5Benes2Precek1n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesPrecekB − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.6+0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesPrecekBasisWin rate · lifetime523 / 1003 vs 233 / 49952.1%46.7%523 / 1003 vs 233 / 499Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.61/Precek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 07:10R. Benes45114811113E. Precek4041111952
WAug 2 · 12:38R. Benes331111113E. Precek195770
LAug 2 · 10:10R. Benes2696110E. Precek351111133
WAug 1 · 16:10R. Benes4111118113E. Precek37991181
LJul 16 · 11:10R. Benes481141211102E. Precek515111013123
WJul 14 · 12:50R. Benes47591111113E. Precek4211115692
LJul 14 · 11:15R. Benes367811101E. Precek4011116123
LJul 14 · 05:45R. Benes36911971E. Precek4011711113
LJul 9 · 06:45R. Benes247890E. Precek331111113
WJul 8 · 07:40R. Benes45111211113E. Precek39914791
R. Benes10
LOct 1 · 08:38R. Benes1.441061251E. Precek2.63121110113LOct 1 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.6711911113R. Benes2.10611771WOct 1 · 06:10J. Krupnik1.8399111182R. Benes1.83111197113WSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133LSep 30 · 11:40M. Moravec2.001113113R. Benes1.7361180WSep 30 · 11:10L. Dzida2.008650R. Benes1.731111113WSep 30 · 10:10R. Benes1.83121210113T. Kindl1.8310101291LSep 30 · 09:09R. Sedlacek2.001191110113R. Benes1.7351161292LSep 30 · 07:40R. Sedlacek2.0041112113R. Benes1.731171061WSep 30 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.2012101171R. Benes1.6114126113
E. Precek10
WOct 1 · 08:38R. Benes1.441061251E. Precek2.63121110113LOct 1 · 07:10E. Precek2.2011611121J. Krupnik1.6131113143LOct 1 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.731211119113E. Precek2.00107131192LSep 29 · 12:49M. Moravec1.443111411153E. Precek2.63117166132LSep 29 · 11:40E. Precek2.25118411M. Moravec1.5751111113LSep 29 · 10:40E. Precek1.6757100D. Pawlik2.101111123WSep 29 · 09:40E. Precek1.8011314113A. Cizek1.918111261WSep 27 · 12:45D. Pawlik1.938670E. Precek1.781111113LSep 27 · 12:15E. Precek1.809101381D. Pawlik1.91111211113WSep 27 · 10:45D. Velky Jr1.67111111852E. Precek2.10138511113
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