TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Sedlacek vs Michal Raska 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111012117811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched: 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeRadek Sedlacek to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Sedlacek above · Michal Raska below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-7
Point 69 set 4, 5-7 · our read held Radek Sedlacek at 61.4%
69 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Radek Sedlacek 3–5 Michal Raska Radek Sedlacek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Raska beat Sedlacek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:0961.4%Our read68.0%to break even at 1.47
short by 6.6pp68.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.47 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Sedlacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Raska
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sedlacek 1579 vs Raska 1545
Sedlacek
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedlacek 80% vs Raska 60%
Sedlacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedlacek 60% vs Raska 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedlacek +3 · Raska +2
Sedlacek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Sedlacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedlacek 1.47 / Raska 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Sedlacek)-6.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13237638
Sedlacek1.47
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 43 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it66% 27 of 41
Raska2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 70 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSedlacek3wins
AwayRaska5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderRaska leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSedlacek50%3 of 6
AwayRaskan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sedlacek6Raska2n = 8Sedlacek took 6 of 8
S2Sedlacek4Raska4n = 8split evenly
S3Sedlacek2Raska6n = 8Raska took 6 of 8
S4Sedlacek6Raska1n = 7Sedlacek took 6 of 7
S5Sedlacek0Raska4n = 4Raska took 4 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSedlacekRaskaS − RBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match41.140.4+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedlacekRaskaBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 345 vs 250 / 52247.3%47.9%163 / 345 vs 250 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekSedlacek 1.47/Raska 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.4%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Raska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 3 · 09:40R. Sedlacek48911101172M. Raska49117128113
LOct 2 · 05:45R. Sedlacek42117101132M. Raska49811127113
WSep 28 · 09:15R. Sedlacek4111811113M. Raska29811821
LSep 28 · 07:10R. Sedlacek4991291182M. Raska481110115113
LAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek4511681192M. Raska47611118113
WAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek331111113M. Raska237970
LJun 1 · 20:50R. Sedlacek30118651M. Raska4181111113
WJun 1 · 18:15R. Sedlacek4111127113M. Raska379101171
R. Sedlacek10
LOct 3 · 15:10A. Cizek2.101111113R. Sedlacek1.676430WOct 3 · 13:04A. Kanak1.9115681152R. Sedlacek1.801311115113WOct 3 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.67116611143A. Kanak2.10811115122WOct 3 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.57811511123J. Volny2.25119117102LOct 3 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.50911101172M. Raska2.50117128113WOct 2 · 08:50L. Lasota1.835111191R. Sedlacek1.8311613113LOct 2 · 07:45R. Sedlacek1.53611118102E. Precek2.38113811123LOct 2 · 06:45R. Sedlacek1.831155101L. Lasota1.8361111123LOct 2 · 05:45R. Sedlacek1.36117101132M. Raska3.00811127113WSep 30 · 09:09R. Sedlacek2.001191110113R. Benes1.7351161292
M. Raska10
LOct 3 · 14:40M. Moravec1.537101111113M. Raska2.3811124962WOct 3 · 12:37M. Raska1.801111113J. Volny1.919540WOct 3 · 12:10J. Volny1.806920M. Raska1.911111113LOct 3 · 11:10M. Raska2.38113111192A. Kanak1.53911713113WOct 3 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.50911101172M. Raska2.50117128113LOct 2 · 09:20M. Raska2.3891090E. Precek1.531112113WOct 2 · 08:15L. Lasota2.0010950M. Raska1.731211113LOct 2 · 07:15M. Raska2.20411651E. Precek1.6111411113WOct 2 · 05:45R. Sedlacek1.36117101132M. Raska3.00811127113WSep 30 · 20:50M. Raska1.57121111113K. Zeman2.25142461
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