TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Cizek vs Radek Sedlacek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114113––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeRadek Sedlacek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Radek Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 46 set 3, 11-3 · our read held Radek Sedlacek at 55.8%
46 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 1–2 Radek Sedlacek Ales Cizek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0855.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sedlacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1531 vs Sedlacek 1579
Sedlacek
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 80% vs Sedlacek 60%
Cizek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 50% vs Sedlacek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +4 · Sedlacek -1
Cizek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Sedlacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.10 / Sedlacek 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sedlacek)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13237636
Cizek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 73 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 48
Sedlacek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 43 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it66% 27 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCizek1wins
AwaySedlacek2wins
Sedlacek leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek1Sedlacek2n = 3Sedlacek took 2 of 3
S2Cizek2Sedlacek1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S3Cizek2Sedlacek1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCizekSedlacekC − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match34.334.0+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 506 vs 163 / 34647.6%47.1%241 / 506 vs 163 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekCizek 2.10/Sedlacek 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 24 · 19:15A. Cizek33711781R. Sedlacek3711411113
WAug 18 · 11:45A. Cizek331111113R. Sedlacek217680
LJun 17 · 20:10A. Cizek378101271R. Sedlacek44111210113
A. Cizek10
WOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113WSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560WSep 29 · 12:10D. Pawlik2.003116111A. Cizek1.7311611133WSep 29 · 11:10A. Cizek2.5015118113M. Moravec1.501341191LSep 29 · 09:40E. Precek1.8011314113A. Cizek1.918111261LSep 27 · 16:39A. Cizek2.1067111122T. Molin1.67111169113LSep 27 · 16:15J. Volny2.201113113A. Cizek1.6181140LSep 27 · 15:15A. Cizek2.00911271L. Dzida1.7311711113WSep 27 · 13:45T. Molin2.007118121A. Cizek1.7311911143LSep 26 · 13:15A. Cizek1.931111211102P. Vinansky1.77132118123
R. Sedlacek10
LOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192LOct 3 · 14:10R. Sedlacek1.476101181M. Raska2.5011127113WOct 3 · 13:04A. Kanak1.9115681152R. Sedlacek1.801311115113WOct 3 · 11:40R. Sedlacek1.67116611143A. Kanak2.10811115122WOct 3 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.57811511123J. Volny2.25119117102LOct 3 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.50911101172M. Raska2.50117128113WOct 2 · 08:50L. Lasota1.835111191R. Sedlacek1.8311613113LOct 2 · 07:45R. Sedlacek1.53611118102E. Precek2.38113811123LOct 2 · 06:45R. Sedlacek1.831155101L. Lasota1.8361111123LOct 2 · 05:45R. Sedlacek1.36117101132M. Raska3.00811127113
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