TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Skvrna vs Jonas Rak 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJonas Rak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 59 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Jonas Rak at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 1–0 Jonas Rak Jonas Rak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0154.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1648 vs Rak 1710
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 60% vs Rak 40%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 50% vs Rak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna -2 · Rak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.833 / Rak 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rak)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13232006
Skvrna1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Rak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkvrna1wins
AwayRak0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSkvrna leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkvrnaRakS − RBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match52.042.0+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaRakBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 849 vs 61 / 12157.8%50.4%491 / 849 vs 61 / 121Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RakSkvrna 1.83/Rak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMar 14 · 16:40J. Skvrna52118119133J. Rak42611311112
J. Skvrna10
WOct 2 · 16:45A. Baros2.506580J. Skvrna1.461111113LOct 2 · 14:45F. Sikora1.44125117113J. Skvrna2.63101131172LOct 2 · 14:15A. Baros1.80711711113J. Skvrna1.9111611862WSep 30 · 13:13J. Skvrna1.8081111113T. Krenek1.91117951WSep 30 · 11:45L. Slavik1.914880J. Skvrna1.801111113WSep 30 · 11:15L. Kantor2.251011441J. Skvrna1.5712511113WSep 30 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.7311119113T. Krenek2.00541191LSep 27 · 16:40J. Skvrna1.5761190D. Velky Jr2.251113113LSep 27 · 15:40J. Skvrna1.6174110F. Chaloupka2.201111133WSep 27 · 14:40J. Skvrna1.579111011113D. Velky Jr2.2511112572
J. Rak10
WOct 2 · 15:15J. Rak1.7391111113A. Baros2.00117851WOct 2 · 13:45F. Sikora1.5311101331J. Rak2.3891215113LSep 8 · 16:40P. Vicherek1.801111113J. Rak1.911960LSep 8 · 16:10J. Rak1.80116100P. Vicherek1.911311123LSep 8 · 14:40F. Sikora1.5371111123J. Rak2.381169101WSep 8 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.6148111492J. Rak2.201111712113LSep 7 · 16:48J. Rak2.205970F. Sikora1.611111113LSep 7 · 16:10J. Rak1.7391191152P. Vicherek2.00118117113WSep 7 · 14:40F. Sikora1.575121171J. Rak2.2511146113LSep 7 · 14:10A. Baros2.201113113J. Rak1.6181150
Upcoming Matches
J. Skvrna
Nothing scheduled
J. Rak
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