TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Slavik vs Jan Skvrna 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Slavik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Slavik above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Slavik at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Slavik 5–6 Jan Skvrna Lukas Slavik has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 11:4354.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slavik 1649 vs Skvrna 1644
Slavik
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slavik 60% vs Skvrna 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slavik 60% vs Skvrna 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slavik -2 · Skvrna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Slavik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlavik 1.909 / Skvrna 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Slavik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13219252
Slavik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 38 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Skvrna1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 227 of 389
Up 2–0, closes it95% 73 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 157 of 210
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlavik5wins
AwaySkvrna5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlavik80%4 of 5
AwaySkvrna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slavik5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S2Slavik2Skvrna8n = 10Skvrna took 8 of 10
S3Slavik5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S4Slavik6Skvrna3n = 9Slavik took 6 of 9
S5Slavik3Skvrna2n = 5Slavik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlavikSkvrnaSlavik − SkvrnaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.142.9−2.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlavikSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 242 vs 489 / 84552.5%57.9%127 / 242 vs 489 / 845Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SlavikSlavik 1.91/Skvrna 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Slavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 13:40L. Slavik4111613113J. Skvrna325111151
LSep 23 · 12:40L. Slavik50910111552J. Skvrna551112813113
WSep 23 · 11:45L. Slavik541281211113J. Skvrna52101114892
LSep 15 · 09:45L. Slavik2045110J. Skvrna351111133
WSep 10 · 11:15L. Slavik43641111113J. Skvrna3911118272
WSep 6 · 10:45L. Slavik46114119113J. Skvrna4231191182
LSep 1 · 13:15L. Slavik33116791J. Skvrna4181111113
LSep 1 · 11:45L. Slavik387128111J. Skvrna45111011133
LJul 2 · 13:40L. Slavik3351141122J. Skvrna51119119113
WJun 15 · 12:35L. Slavik43111011113J. Skvrna37812891
L. Slavik10
LSep 30 · 10:45L. Slavik1.61571181T. Krenek2.2011117113LSep 30 · 09:45L. Slavik1.6161141192L. Kantor2.20119117113WSep 28 · 21:18J. Gembala1.91111158122L. Slavik1.80561111143WSep 28 · 20:15L. Slavik1.571011111113D. Velky Jr2.2512741162WSep 28 · 18:45J. Gembala1.737114121L. Slavik2.0011911143LSep 28 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.8351111113L. Slavik1.83116951WSep 27 · 17:09F. Chaloupka1.731271251L. Slavik2.00101114113WSep 27 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.201111061L. Slavik1.6111712113LSep 27 · 15:10L. Slavik2.251181111102F. Chaloupka1.57131197123WSep 27 · 13:40J. Skvrna1.675111151L. Slavik2.1011613113
J. Skvrna10
WSep 30 · 11:15L. Kantor2.251011441J. Skvrna1.5712511113WSep 30 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.7311119113T. Krenek2.00541191LSep 27 · 16:40J. Skvrna1.5761190D. Velky Jr2.251113113LSep 27 · 15:40J. Skvrna1.6174110F. Chaloupka2.201111133WSep 27 · 14:40J. Skvrna1.579111011113D. Velky Jr2.2511112572LSep 27 · 13:40J. Skvrna1.675111151L. Slavik2.1011613113WSep 24 · 09:15I. Heuman1.73119781J. Skvrna2.0091111113WSep 24 · 07:45J. Skvrna1.676111211113J. Krupnik2.1011914142WSep 24 · 06:45J. Skvrna1.531113410113D. Pawlik2.38211111262LSep 24 · 05:45J. Skvrna1.73119441I. Heuman2.0061111113
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