TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Antonin Baros vs Jan Skvrna 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116711118116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAntonin Baros to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Antonin Baros at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 9–4 Jan Skvrna Jan Skvrna has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:0054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baros
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Baros
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1629 vs Skvrna 1667
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 20% vs Skvrna 80%
Skvrna
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 40% vs Skvrna 70%
Skvrna
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros -2 · Skvrna +4
Skvrna
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Baros) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 1.80 / Skvrna 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Baros)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13231769
Baros1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 22 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Skvrna1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 13 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros7wins
AwaySkvrna3wins
7 of 10 to a deciderBaros leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros60%3 of 5
AwaySkvrna20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S2Baros7Skvrna3n = 10Baros took 7 of 10
S3Baros7Skvrna3n = 10Baros took 7 of 10
S4Baros2Skvrna6n = 8Skvrna took 6 of 8
S5Baros5Skvrna2n = 7Baros took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosSkvrnaB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.341.0+4.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 412 vs 491 / 84746.6%58%192 / 412 vs 491 / 847Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BarosBaros 1.80/Skvrna 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 14:10A. Baros46511136113J. Skvrna47116111182
WMar 23 · 19:40A. Baros491111610113J. Skvrna4368111262
WMar 16 · 21:15A. Baros541011157113J. Skvrna49126131172
WMar 2 · 19:10A. Baros49791111113J. Skvrna4111117752
LFeb 16 · 14:40A. Baros4771112892J. Skvrna511181011113
LFeb 6 · 16:45A. Baros33119761J. Skvrna4181111113
WFeb 2 · 20:40A. Baros331111113J. Skvrna167540
WJan 18 · 18:45A. Baros506111111113J. Skvrna4311713662
LJan 17 · 21:15A. Baros591181111182J. Skvrna60911713203
WJan 9 · 16:40A. Baros331111113J. Skvrna197660
A. Baros10
LOct 2 · 15:15J. Rak1.7391111113A. Baros2.00117851LSep 28 · 20:35A. Baros1.913870P. Vicherek1.801111113LSep 28 · 19:40R. Kowal1.73411115113A. Baros2.0011361172WSep 28 · 19:10P. Vicherek1.8097111272A. Baros1.911111610113LSep 28 · 18:10A. Baros2.2511961162D. Sarganek1.57711113113LSep 23 · 20:35A. Baros1.91116691P. Vicherek1.8091111113LSep 23 · 20:10A. Baros2.006930R. Kowal1.731111113WSep 23 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.73841151A. Baros2.0011115113WSep 23 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.571771110102A. Baros2.251511812123WSep 23 · 17:19A. Baros2.2511811113D. Sarganek1.57511791
J. Skvrna10
LOct 2 · 14:45F. Sikora1.44125117113J. Skvrna2.63101131172WSep 30 · 13:13J. Skvrna1.8081111113T. Krenek1.91117951WSep 30 · 11:45L. Slavik1.914880J. Skvrna1.801111113WSep 30 · 11:15L. Kantor2.251011441J. Skvrna1.5712511113WSep 30 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.7311119113T. Krenek2.00541191LSep 27 · 16:40J. Skvrna1.5761190D. Velky Jr2.251113113LSep 27 · 15:40J. Skvrna1.6174110F. Chaloupka2.201111133WSep 27 · 14:40J. Skvrna1.579111011113D. Velky Jr2.2511112572LSep 27 · 13:40J. Skvrna1.675111151L. Slavik2.1011613113WSep 24 · 09:15I. Heuman1.73119781J. Skvrna2.0091111113
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