TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Benes vs Michal Moravec 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11815131113118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 90 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Michal Moravec at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 26–30 Michal Moravec Radek Benes has won 26 of their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:1154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-30 in 56
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 4 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1661 vs Moravec 1621
Benes
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 80% vs Moravec 60%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 70% vs Moravec 50%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +3 · Moravec -1
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.909 / Moravec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13245880
Benes1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 56 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Moravec1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 59 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it75% 35 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes60%3 of 5
AwayMoravec60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S2Benes3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S3Benes5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S4Benes4Moravec1n = 5Benes took 4 of 5
S5Benes2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesMoravecB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.2−0.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime530 / 1013 vs 213 / 41552.3%51.3%530 / 1013 vs 213 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecBenes 1.91/Moravec 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 13:08R. Benes4411911133M. Moravec339112111
LSep 30 · 11:40R. Benes2561180M. Moravec351113113
LSep 22 · 08:53R. Benes122460M. Moravec331111113
LSep 22 · 06:15R. Benes4611691192M. Moravec46711116113
WSep 21 · 10:15R. Benes539101111123M. Moravec48111296102
WAug 31 · 12:10R. Benes331111113M. Moravec236980
WAug 29 · 16:15R. Benes516111211113M. Moravec4811814872
LAug 3 · 12:45R. Benes5611121210112M. Moravec545141012133
LAug 3 · 10:15R. Benes2495100M. Moravec341111123
WJul 28 · 10:10R. Benes341211113M. Moravec2810990
R. Benes10
WOct 5 · 11:15T. Krenek1.73114871R. Benes2.0061111113WOct 5 · 09:25L. Slavik2.0011111061R. Benes1.7313612113WOct 5 · 08:15R. Benes1.911011129113T. Krenek1.80128101192WOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113LOct 5 · 06:15L. Slavik2.2011111011113R. Benes1.6113412672WOct 4 · 17:15R. Benes2.101113410153D. Velky Jr1.678111112132LOct 4 · 15:40L. Dzida2.2571111113R. Benes1.57114771WOct 4 · 15:10R. Solle2.385136121R. Benes1.53111111143WOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes2.2091111113D. Velky Jr1.61118361LOct 1 · 08:38R. Benes1.441061251E. Precek2.63121110113
M. Moravec10
LOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.7316611163M. Moravec2.0014119141LOct 3 · 17:19M. Moravec1.61911701M. Raska2.2011811113WOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192WOct 3 · 14:40M. Moravec1.537101111113M. Raska2.3811124962LOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113WOct 1 · 17:00V. Konvicka2.0011611151M. Moravec1.7391113173LOct 1 · 15:45A. Kanak2.001111911113M. Moravec1.7313711792LOct 1 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.10111112113M. Moravec1.671391091WOct 1 · 14:15M. Moravec1.6761111113L. Dzida2.10119991LSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133
Upcoming Matches
R. Benes
Nothing scheduled
M. Moravec
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.