TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Benes vs Dalibor Velky Jr 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118131141110121513
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingRadek Benes above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 108 set 5, 15-13
108 points played in total.
H2H Radek Benes 23–24 Dalibor Velky Jr Radek Benes has won 23 of their 47 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Benes beat Velky Jr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 2.10 / Velky Jr 1.666
TT Cup · #13244610
Benes2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 54 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back25% 20 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Velky Jr1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 68 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it69% 52 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes5wins
AwayVelky Jr5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenesn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVelky Jr55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes1Velky Jr9n = 10Velky Jr took 9 of 10
S2Benes5Velky Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Benes7Velky Jr3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes5Velky Jr3n = 8Benes took 5 of 8
S5Benes2Velky Jr2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesVelky JrB − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match39.439.0+0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime526 / 1008 vs 297 / 59852.2%49.7%526 / 1008 vs 297 / 598Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Velky JrBenes 2.10/Velky Jr 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes4291111113D. Velky Jr28118361
WSep 17 · 08:15R. Benes4151114113D. Velky Jr371171271
LSep 13 · 16:10R. Benes4891113782D. Velky Jr471131111113
LSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes2587100D. Velky Jr341111123
WSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes3911611113D. Velky Jr32711681
LSep 3 · 06:15R. Benes27661141D. Velky Jr4211119113
LSep 2 · 08:45R. Benes237790D. Velky Jr331111113
LSep 2 · 06:15R. Benes4351181182D. Velky Jr48117118113
WAug 31 · 09:10R. Benes51911119113D. Velky Jr4011571162
WAug 31 · 06:10R. Benes559131111113D. Velky Jr4911159592
R. Benes10
LOct 4 · 15:40L. Dzida2.2571111113R. Benes1.57114771WOct 4 · 15:10R. Solle2.385136121R. Benes1.53111111143WOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes2.2091111113D. Velky Jr1.61118361LOct 1 · 08:38R. Benes1.441061251E. Precek2.63121110113WOct 1 · 08:10R. Benes1.6111114133E. Precek2.209911111LOct 1 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.6711911113R. Benes2.10611771WOct 1 · 06:10J. Krupnik1.8399111182R. Benes1.83111197113WSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133LSep 30 · 11:40M. Moravec2.001113113R. Benes1.7361180WSep 30 · 11:10L. Dzida2.008650R. Benes1.731111113
D. Velky Jr10
WOct 4 · 16:10D. Velky Jr1.73211511113R. Solle2.0011711982WOct 4 · 14:40L. Dzida2.00911881D. Velky Jr1.7311611113LOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes2.2091111113D. Velky Jr1.61118361LOct 3 · 13:15D. Velky Jr1.6111101291J. Skvrna2.2051214113WOct 3 · 12:15J. Krupnik1.53122120D. Velky Jr2.381411143LOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113WOct 3 · 09:45M. Macurak1.67811231D. Velky Jr2.1011711113WOct 3 · 09:25D. Velky Jr2.7591211113B. Moravec1.401110351WOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682WOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec1.2811981172D. Velky Jr3.50311113113
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