TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Dalibor Velky Jr 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
12142111214––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 65 set 3, 12-14 · our read held Jan Krupnik at 62.4%
65 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 22–16 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1062.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krupnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-16 in 38
Krupnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1689 vs Velky Jr 1602
Krupnik
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 80% vs Velky Jr 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 70% vs Velky Jr 40%
Krupnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +2 · Velky Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Krupnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velky Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.533 / Velky Jr 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Krupnik)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13235696
Krupnik1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 135 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it74% 95 of 129
Velky Jr2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 117 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik7wins
AwayVelky Jr3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik100%6 of 6
AwayVelky Jr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik6Velky Jr4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik9Velky Jr1n = 10Krupnik took 9 of 10
S3Krupnik6Velky Jr4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik5Velky Jr2n = 7Krupnik took 5 of 7
S5Krupnik1Velky Jr3n = 4Velky Jr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikVelky JrK − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.735.4+7.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime487 / 937 vs 294 / 59352%49.6%487 / 937 vs 294 / 593Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.53/Velky Jr 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Velky Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik431616113D. Velky Jr33141450
WSep 28 · 19:15J. Krupnik331111113D. Velky Jr279990
LSep 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik45911101142D. Velky Jr41113124113
LSep 13 · 17:20J. Krupnik51131111882D. Velky Jr45154411113
WSep 13 · 15:10J. Krupnik3911116113D. Velky Jr31681161
WSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik3911116113D. Velky Jr32851181
WSep 4 · 07:10J. Krupnik4615118123D. Velky Jr3713311101
LAug 29 · 15:45J. Krupnik4387111162D. Velky Jr46111194113
WAug 15 · 21:24J. Krupnik549111112113D. Velky Jr4011451462
WAug 15 · 19:15J. Krupnik341112113D. Velky Jr2271050
J. Krupnik10
LOct 3 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.801156101M. Macurak1.9181111123WOct 3 · 10:45M. Macurak1.731151661J. Krupnik2.0091118113WOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113LOct 1 · 09:09J. Krupnik2.109970B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.80114851J. Krupnik1.9181111113WOct 1 · 07:10E. Precek2.2011611121J. Krupnik1.6131113143LOct 1 · 06:10J. Krupnik1.8399111182R. Benes1.83111197113WSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik1.501616113D. Velky Jr2.50141450LSep 28 · 19:45J. Gembala1.671111163J. Krupnik2.1097140WSep 28 · 19:15D. Velky Jr2.259990J. Krupnik1.571111113
D. Velky Jr10
LOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113WOct 3 · 09:45M. Macurak1.67811231D. Velky Jr2.1011711113WOct 3 · 09:25D. Velky Jr2.7591211113B. Moravec1.401110351WOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682WOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec1.2811981172D. Velky Jr3.50311113113LOct 3 · 06:15F. Chaloupka1.5011911113D. Velky Jr2.50911591LOct 1 · 16:35F. Chaloupka1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.208760LOct 1 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.389840K. Kleprlik1.531111113LSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik1.501616113D. Velky Jr2.50141450LSep 28 · 19:15D. Velky Jr2.259990J. Krupnik1.571111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Krupnik
D. Velky Jr
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