TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Macurak vs Jan Krupnik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1195111618611––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:31 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 16-18
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 87 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Michal Macurak at 58.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 22–14 Jan Krupnik Jan Krupnik has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3158.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
clears by 0.2pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Macurak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-14 in 36
Macurak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1656 vs Krupnik 1678
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 0% vs Krupnik 60%
Krupnik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 50% vs Krupnik 70%
Krupnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak -5 · Krupnik +1
Macurak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Macurak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.727 / Krupnik 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Macurak)+0.2pp
TT Cup · #13235713
Macurak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 66 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Krupnik2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 101 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back31% 27 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak7wins
AwayKrupnik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMacurak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak80%4 of 5
AwayKrupnik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Macurak8Krupnik2n = 10Macurak took 8 of 10
S3Macurak6Krupnik4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S4Macurak6Krupnik3n = 9Macurak took 6 of 9
S5Macurak1Krupnik2n = 3Krupnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakKrupnikM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.536.4+4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 504 vs 486 / 93651%51.9%257 / 504 vs 486 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.73/Krupnik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 12:45M. Macurak341111123J. Krupnik2257100
WSep 17 · 10:45M. Macurak4615119113J. Krupnik411391181
LSep 15 · 11:40M. Macurak4771111992J. Krupnik42115411113
WSep 13 · 15:40M. Macurak4211119113J. Krupnik26741141
LSep 11 · 11:40M. Macurak3861111732J. Krupnik48117811113
WSep 5 · 10:15M. Macurak3911611113J. Krupnik29611751
WSep 4 · 09:09M. Macurak48611911113J. Krupnik4611811882
WSep 4 · 06:10M. Macurak4051311113J. Krupnik371111961
WAug 23 · 20:10M. Macurak3521111113J. Krupnik30117751
LAug 19 · 12:39M. Macurak36128971J. Krupnik43101111113
M. Macurak10
LOct 3 · 09:45M. Macurak1.67811231D. Velky Jr2.1011711113LOct 2 · 12:48L. Dzida2.00592011113M. Macurak1.73111118542LOct 2 · 11:45M. Macurak1.7311119101T. Krenek2.0013411123LOct 2 · 10:45M. Macurak1.57115861E. Precek2.2591111113LOct 2 · 09:45M. Macurak1.5711116962L. Dzida2.25891111113WSep 20 · 21:24M. Macurak1.9111115113J. Skvrna1.80971161WSep 20 · 19:45M. Macurak2.1013118113J. Skvrna1.671171131WSep 20 · 18:45M. Macurak1.671091112113J. Travnicek2.10121141072WSep 20 · 17:45M. Macurak1.571111113D. Vitasek2.259990WSep 17 · 12:45M. Macurak1.611111123J. Krupnik2.2057100
J. Krupnik10
WOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113LOct 1 · 09:09J. Krupnik2.109970B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.80114851J. Krupnik1.9181111113WOct 1 · 07:10E. Precek2.2011611121J. Krupnik1.6131113143LOct 1 · 06:10J. Krupnik1.8399111182R. Benes1.83111197113WSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik1.501616113D. Velky Jr2.50141450LSep 28 · 19:45J. Gembala1.671111163J. Krupnik2.1097140WSep 28 · 19:15D. Velky Jr2.259990J. Krupnik1.571111113WSep 28 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.8351111113L. Slavik1.83116951LSep 17 · 12:45M. Macurak1.611111123J. Krupnik2.2057100
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