TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dzida vs Michal Macurak 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5119112018115114
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Michal Macurak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 20-18
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 105 set 5, 11-4
105 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 2–4 Michal Macurak Lukas Dzida has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Dzida beat Macurak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Macurak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 2.00 / Macurak 1.727
TT Cup · #13233031
Dzida2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog56% won 39 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back39% 14 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Macurak1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 66 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it100% 36 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it79% 45 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDzida2wins
AwayMacurak4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderMacurak leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzidan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMacurak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida0Macurak6n = 6Macurak took 6 of 6
S2Dzida3Macurak3n = 6split evenly
S3Dzida3Macurak3n = 6split evenly
S4Dzida3Macurak2n = 5Dzida took 3 of 5
S5Dzida2Macurak2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDzidaMacurakD − MBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set06−6of 6Avg pointsper match39.843.3−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaMacurakBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 240 vs 257 / 50254.2%51.2%130 / 240 vs 257 / 502Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakDzida 2.00/Macurak 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–2
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 2 · 09:45L. Dzida50891111113M. Macurak4311116962
WAug 20 · 08:45L. Dzida49811811113M. Macurak4011911452
LAug 20 · 05:45L. Dzida358124111M. Macurak45111011133
LAug 13 · 12:50L. Dzida4068111142M. Macurak45111148113
LAug 13 · 09:45L. Dzida2221280M. Macurak361114113
LAug 11 · 14:10L. Dzida43411116112M. Macurak51119711133
L. Dzida10
WOct 2 · 12:15E. Precek1.911111841L. Dzida1.8013611113LOct 2 · 11:15L. Dzida1.7312970T. Krenek2.001411113WOct 2 · 09:45M. Macurak1.5711116962L. Dzida2.25891111113LOct 1 · 17:30L. Dzida1.7391080A. Kanak2.001112113WOct 1 · 16:15L. Dzida1.839111110113V. Konvicka1.8311781272WOct 1 · 14:45A. Kanak2.0061340L. Dzida1.731115113LOct 1 · 14:15M. Moravec1.6761111113L. Dzida2.10119991WOct 1 · 12:34T. Kindl1.531141061L. Dzida2.3871112113LOct 1 · 12:10L. Dzida1.834890T. Kindl1.831111113LOct 1 · 10:40D. Velky Jr1.911511133L. Dzida1.80138110
M. Macurak10
LOct 2 · 11:45M. Macurak1.7311119101T. Krenek2.0013411123LOct 2 · 10:45M. Macurak1.57115861E. Precek2.2591111113LOct 2 · 09:45M. Macurak1.5711116962L. Dzida2.25891111113WSep 20 · 21:24M. Macurak1.9111115113J. Skvrna1.80971161WSep 20 · 19:45M. Macurak2.1013118113J. Skvrna1.671171131WSep 20 · 18:45M. Macurak1.671091112113J. Travnicek2.10121141072WSep 20 · 17:45M. Macurak1.571111113D. Vitasek2.259990WSep 17 · 12:45M. Macurak1.611111123J. Krupnik2.2057100LSep 17 · 12:15M. Macurak1.837111051T. Krenek1.8311212113WSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik2.381391181M. Macurak1.5315119113
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