TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Dalibor Velky Jr 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
16141614115––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 76 set 3, 11-5
76 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 21–16 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Krupnik beat Velky Jr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velky Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.50 / Velky Jr 2.50
TT Cup · #13213627
Krupnik1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 134 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it73% 94 of 128
Velky Jr2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 115 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik6wins
AwayVelky Jr4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik83.3%5 of 6
AwayVelky Jr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik6Velky Jr4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik8Velky Jr2n = 10Krupnik took 8 of 10
S3Krupnik5Velky Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Krupnik5Velky Jr3n = 8Krupnik took 5 of 8
S5Krupnik1Velky Jr3n = 4Velky Jr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikVelky JrK − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.736.3+5.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 930 vs 285 / 57451.8%49.7%482 / 930 vs 285 / 574Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.50/Velky Jr 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–0
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 19:15J. Krupnik331111113D. Velky Jr279990
LSep 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik45911101142D. Velky Jr41113124113
LSep 13 · 17:20J. Krupnik51131111882D. Velky Jr45154411113
WSep 13 · 15:10J. Krupnik3911116113D. Velky Jr31681161
WSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik3911116113D. Velky Jr32851181
WSep 4 · 07:10J. Krupnik4615118123D. Velky Jr3713311101
LAug 29 · 15:45J. Krupnik4387111162D. Velky Jr46111194113
WAug 15 · 21:24J. Krupnik549111112113D. Velky Jr4011451462
WAug 15 · 19:15J. Krupnik341112113D. Velky Jr2271050
LAug 14 · 07:40J. Krupnik33115891D. Velky Jr4291111113
J. Krupnik10
LSep 28 · 19:45J. Gembala1.671111163J. Krupnik2.1097140WSep 28 · 19:15D. Velky Jr2.259990J. Krupnik1.571111113WSep 28 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.8351111113L. Slavik1.83116951WSep 28 · 17:15B. Mrowetz1.73123711112J. Krupnik2.001011118133WSep 28 · 16:15J. Krupnik1.501111113L. Kantor2.508960WSep 28 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.738111081J. Krupnik2.0011612113LSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz1.7311611113J. Krupnik2.00311981LSep 27 · 12:38J. Krupnik1.6757110A. Veliiev2.101111133LSep 27 · 11:40F. Chaloupka1.7311117113J. Krupnik2.00891171LSep 27 · 11:10J. Travnicek1.9111138113J. Krupnik1.806111181
D. Velky Jr10
LSep 28 · 20:15L. Slavik1.571011111113D. Velky Jr2.2512741162LSep 28 · 19:15D. Velky Jr2.259990J. Krupnik1.571111113LSep 28 · 17:45J. Gembala1.4011117113D. Velky Jr2.75491171WSep 27 · 16:40J. Skvrna1.5761190D. Velky Jr2.251113113LSep 27 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.201111061L. Slavik1.6111712113LSep 27 · 14:40J. Skvrna1.579111011113D. Velky Jr2.2511112572WSep 27 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.57871161D. Velky Jr2.2511117113LSep 27 · 13:17D. Velky Jr1.73117991L. Dzida2.0091111113WSep 27 · 11:45D. Velky Jr1.83141189113L. Dzida1.83126111182LSep 27 · 10:45D. Velky Jr1.67111111852E. Precek2.10138511113
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