TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Dzida vs Dalibor Velky Jr 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911116811811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-10
Point 74 set 4, 8-10 · our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 54.0%
74 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Lukas Dzida 4–7 Dalibor Velky Jr Lukas Dzida has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Velky Jr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Velky Jr
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1567 vs Velky Jr 1621
Velky Jr
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 60% vs Velky Jr 40%
Dzida
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 60% vs Velky Jr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -1 · Velky Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Velky Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velky Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 2.00 / Velky Jr 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Velky Jr)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13242923
Dzida2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog57% won 41 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back42% 16 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Velky Jr1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 68 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it69% 52 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDzida3wins
AwayVelky Jr7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVelky Jr leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzidan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVelky Jr87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida2Velky Jr8n = 10Velky Jr took 8 of 10
S2Dzida5Velky Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Dzida4Velky Jr6n = 10Velky Jr took 6 of 10
S4Dzida3Velky Jr3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDzidaVelky JrD − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.138.3−2.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 242 vs 295 / 59654.1%49.5%131 / 242 vs 295 / 596Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Velky JrDzida 2.00/Velky Jr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Velky Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Velky Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 10:40L. Dzida32138110D. Velky Jr391511133
WSep 27 · 13:17L. Dzida4291111113D. Velky Jr36117991
LSep 27 · 11:45L. Dzida48126111182D. Velky Jr53141189113
LAug 28 · 06:45L. Dzida34910150D. Velky Jr401112173
LAug 22 · 15:15L. Dzida377111091D. Velky Jr4311912113
LAug 21 · 09:13L. Dzida37891191D. Velky Jr4011117113
WAug 21 · 08:15L. Dzida331111113D. Velky Jr198560
LAug 20 · 08:15L. Dzida2691160D. Velky Jr351113113
LAug 13 · 12:15L. Dzida29713631D. Velky Jr44111111113
WAug 10 · 08:45L. Dzida4311129113D. Velky Jr345101181
L. Dzida10
WOct 4 · 15:40L. Dzida2.2571111113R. Benes1.57114771LOct 4 · 13:40L. Dzida1.73911661R. Solle2.0011511113WOct 2 · 12:48L. Dzida2.00592011113M. Macurak1.73111118542WOct 2 · 12:15E. Precek1.911111841L. Dzida1.8013611113LOct 2 · 11:15L. Dzida1.7312970T. Krenek2.001411113WOct 2 · 09:45M. Macurak1.5711116962L. Dzida2.25891111113LOct 1 · 17:30L. Dzida1.7391080A. Kanak2.001112113WOct 1 · 16:15L. Dzida1.839111110113V. Konvicka1.8311781272WOct 1 · 14:45A. Kanak2.0061340L. Dzida1.731115113LOct 1 · 14:15M. Moravec1.6761111113L. Dzida2.10119991
D. Velky Jr10
LOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes2.2091111113D. Velky Jr1.61118361LOct 3 · 13:15D. Velky Jr1.6111101291J. Skvrna2.2051214113WOct 3 · 12:15J. Krupnik1.53122120D. Velky Jr2.381411143LOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113WOct 3 · 09:45M. Macurak1.67811231D. Velky Jr2.1011711113WOct 3 · 09:25D. Velky Jr2.7591211113B. Moravec1.401110351WOct 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.671212511113P. Marsalek2.10101411682WOct 3 · 06:45B. Moravec1.2811981172D. Velky Jr3.50311113113LOct 3 · 06:15F. Chaloupka1.5011911113D. Velky Jr2.50911591LOct 1 · 16:35F. Chaloupka1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.208760
Upcoming Matches
L. Dzida
Nothing scheduled
D. Velky Jr
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.