TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Jan Skvrna 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611118511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jan Skvrna at 57.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 28–37 Jan Skvrna Jan Krupnik has won 28 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3457.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-37 in 65
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 9 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1596 vs Skvrna 1660
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 60% vs Skvrna 40%
Krupnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 40% vs Skvrna 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -1 · Skvrna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 2.20 / Skvrna 1.615
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Skvrna)-4.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251853
Krupnik2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 103 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back31% 29 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 49
Skvrna1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 231 of 395
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it75% 161 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik4wins
AwaySkvrna6wins
8 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik33.3%1 of 3
AwaySkvrna57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik3Skvrna7n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S2Krupnik5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik8Skvrna2n = 10Krupnik took 8 of 10
S4Krupnik6Skvrna4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S5Krupnik2Skvrna6n = 8Skvrna took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikSkvrnaK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.745.6−1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 953 vs 498 / 86151.5%57.8%491 / 953 vs 498 / 861Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaKrupnik 2.20/Skvrna 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 10:15J. Krupnik49961112113J. Skvrna43111121092
LSep 24 · 07:45J. Krupnik3911914142J. Skvrna516111211113
WSep 23 · 10:15J. Krupnik46111176113J. Skvrna4274111192
WSep 18 · 11:45J. Krupnik4061112113J. Skvrna381191081
LSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik4681361182J. Skvrna521111118113
LSep 14 · 11:45J. Krupnik5210101111102J. Skvrna51121296123
LSep 13 · 11:40J. Krupnik4311811762J. Skvrna48711811113
LSep 5 · 11:45J. Krupnik4269111152J. Skvrna47111177113
WSep 4 · 07:40J. Krupnik4181111113J. Skvrna32118491
LAug 16 · 16:44J. Krupnik3911211872J. Skvrna521110911113
J. Krupnik10
LOct 6 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.80116116112B. Mrowetz1.91711711133LOct 6 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.7381471172T. Krenek2.001112118113WOct 6 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.83771111113B. Mrowetz1.8311119962LOct 4 · 13:19J. Krupnik1.911111961J. Travnicek1.8013711113WOct 4 · 11:45B. Mrowetz1.735570J. Krupnik2.001111113WOct 4 · 11:15T. Molin2.63581191J. Krupnik1.4411119113WOct 4 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.8311118113J. Travnicek1.83771191LOct 4 · 08:53J. Skalicky1.611111113J. Krupnik2.205680LOct 4 · 07:45F. Chaloupka1.7311126113J. Krupnik2.006101191LOct 4 · 07:15J. Travnicek1.9151111113J. Krupnik1.80118781
J. Skvrna10
WOct 6 · 11:10B. Mrowetz1.91911971J. Skvrna1.8011711113LOct 6 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.73911111182T. Krenek2.00114138113LOct 5 · 12:45J. Skvrna1.8039130M. Moravec1.911111153LOct 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.80771171R. Benes1.9111118113WOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.7316611163M. Moravec2.0014119141LOct 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.737911111T. Krenek2.0011118133WOct 3 · 13:15D. Velky Jr1.6111101291J. Skvrna2.2051214113WOct 3 · 11:45M. Macurak2.00571661J. Skvrna1.73111114113WOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113LOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113
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