TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Jakub Travnicek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117811119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Travnicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Jakub Travnicek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Jakub Travnicek at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 20–14 Jakub Travnicek Jakub Travnicek has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Travnicek beat Krupnik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0554.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Travnicek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-14 in 34
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1577 vs Travnicek 1584
Travnicek
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 0% vs Travnicek 40%
Travnicek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 0% vs Travnicek 40%
Travnicek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -10 · Travnicek -1
Krupnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Travnicek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Travnicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.833 / Travnicek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Travnicek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13240850
Krupnik1.83
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 10
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Travnicek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik3wins
AwayTravnicek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTravnicek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik33.3%2 of 6
AwayTravnicek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik6Travnicek4n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Krupnik3Travnicek7n = 10Travnicek took 7 of 10
S3Krupnik4Travnicek6n = 10Travnicek took 6 of 10
S4Krupnik3Travnicek6n = 9Travnicek took 6 of 9
S5Krupnik1Travnicek2n = 3Travnicek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikTravnicekK − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.8−2.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikTravnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime488 / 948 vs 225 / 45151.5%49.9%488 / 948 vs 225 / 451Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TravnicekKrupnik 1.83/Travnicek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Travnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 10:15J. Krupnik4111118113J. Travnicek34771191
LOct 4 · 07:15J. Krupnik34118781J. Travnicek3851111113
LSep 27 · 11:10J. Krupnik366111181J. Travnicek4311138113
WSep 7 · 18:15J. Krupnik51915115113J. Travnicek50111391162
LAug 21 · 18:40J. Krupnik4211471192J. Travnicek46811115113
LAug 15 · 18:15J. Krupnik4112211882J. Travnicek471011411113
WAug 8 · 18:15J. Krupnik4312911113J. Travnicek341011581
LJul 30 · 18:15J. Krupnik27911251J. Travnicek3611311113
LJul 5 · 14:45J. Krupnik2561090J. Travnicek341112113
LJun 28 · 14:45J. Krupnik39158791J. Travnicek46131111113
J. Krupnik10
LOct 4 · 08:53J. Skalicky1.611111113J. Krupnik2.205680LOct 4 · 07:45F. Chaloupka1.7311126113J. Krupnik2.006101191LOct 4 · 07:15J. Travnicek1.9151111113J. Krupnik1.80118781LOct 4 · 06:15J. Krupnik2.00881181J. Skalicky1.7311116113LOct 3 · 16:46K. Kleprlik1.871111113J. Krupnik1.835570LOct 3 · 15:45M. Macurak1.6111118113J. Krupnik2.20771151LOct 3 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8311101011123J. Krupnik1.83812125102LOct 3 · 14:15J. Krupnik1.731091191T. Krenek2.0012119113LOct 3 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.801156101M. Macurak1.9181111123LOct 3 · 12:15J. Krupnik1.53122120D. Velky Jr2.381411143
J. Travnicek10
WOct 4 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.61111111652J. Travnicek2.20137811113LOct 4 · 09:23F. Chaloupka1.611111119113J. Travnicek2.2077131132WOct 4 · 08:15J. Skalicky1.83811431J. Travnicek1.8311911113WOct 4 · 07:15J. Travnicek1.9151111113J. Krupnik1.80118781LOct 4 · 05:45F. Chaloupka1.5711719113J. Travnicek2.255111771LOct 1 · 20:40J. Travnicek1.50310100P. Marsalek2.501112123LOct 1 · 19:45J. Travnicek1.67851191I. Heuman2.1011117113WOct 1 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.6112511113P. Marsalek2.201011881LOct 1 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.809910D. Vitasek1.911111113LSep 29 · 08:48J. Travnicek1.50861181D. Pawlik2.5011119113
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