TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Frantisek Chaloupka vs Jakub Travnicek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1157111917117––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:40 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · Jakub Travnicek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 19-17
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 88 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 60.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 13–9 Jakub Travnicek Jakub Travnicek has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4060.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chaloupka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Chaloupka
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1660 vs Travnicek 1587
Chaloupka
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 60% vs Travnicek 20%
Chaloupka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 50% vs Travnicek 30%
Chaloupka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka +1 · Travnicek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Chaloupka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Travnicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 1.571 / Travnicek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Chaloupka)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13241030
Chaloupka1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 107 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it97% 65 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it77% 88 of 115
Travnicek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 58 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back30% 20 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaloupka6wins
AwayTravnicek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupka83.3%5 of 6
AwayTravnicek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka6Travnicek4n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S2Chaloupka7Travnicek3n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S3Chaloupka4Travnicek6n = 10Travnicek took 6 of 10
S4Chaloupka5Travnicek2n = 7Chaloupka took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaloupkaTravnicekC − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.833.6+3.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaTravnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 563 vs 223 / 44652.4%50%295 / 563 vs 223 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaChaloupka 1.57/Travnicek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 13:09F. Chaloupka4371111143J. Travnicek341165121
LSep 27 · 09:40F. Chaloupka357101171J. Travnicek4311129113
LSep 19 · 09:09F. Chaloupka208570J. Travnicek331111113
WSep 19 · 07:40F. Chaloupka331111113J. Travnicek248970
LAug 21 · 19:40F. Chaloupka4912981192J. Travnicek511011118113
WJul 17 · 20:15F. Chaloupka4211119113J. Travnicek36881191
WJun 27 · 16:50F. Chaloupka351113113J. Travnicek2271140
WJun 27 · 15:10F. Chaloupka4111118113J. Travnicek27461161
WMay 24 · 16:45F. Chaloupka3911116113J. Travnicek24421171
LMay 24 · 13:40F. Chaloupka31611681J. Travnicek4211911113
F. Chaloupka10
WOct 3 · 08:55P. Marsalek2.501111491F. Chaloupka1.5013811113LOct 3 · 07:45B. Moravec1.7311114113F. Chaloupka2.00551191LOct 3 · 07:15P. Marsalek3.40811514113F. Chaloupka1.30115111262WOct 3 · 06:15F. Chaloupka1.5011911113D. Velky Jr2.50911591WOct 1 · 16:35F. Chaloupka1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.208760LOct 1 · 15:40B. Moravec1.50118115113F. Chaloupka2.5051191162LOct 1 · 15:10K. Kleprlik1.83117119113F. Chaloupka1.8391171162WOct 1 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.67111511133D. Velky Jr2.107175111WSep 30 · 16:44J. Pribyl1.44136861F. Chaloupka2.63111111113LSep 30 · 15:45B. Moravec1.531111113F. Chaloupka2.389770
J. Travnicek10
LOct 1 · 20:40J. Travnicek1.50310100P. Marsalek2.501112123LOct 1 · 19:45J. Travnicek1.67851191I. Heuman2.1011117113WOct 1 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.6112511113P. Marsalek2.201011881LOct 1 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.809910D. Vitasek1.911111113LSep 29 · 08:48J. Travnicek1.50861181D. Pawlik2.5011119113WSep 29 · 07:40J. Travnicek1.731212116113I. Heuman2.00141061182LSep 29 · 06:40J. Travnicek2.25113681R. Benes1.5781111113WSep 29 · 05:40J. Travnicek1.5741211113D. Pawlik2.251110991LSep 27 · 13:09J. Travnicek2.001165121F. Chaloupka1.7371111143LSep 27 · 12:10A. Veliiev2.251111113J. Travnicek1.577750
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