TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Marsalek vs Frantisek Chaloupka 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111155111412116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched: 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 75.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Marsalek 1–0 Frantisek Chaloupka Frantisek Chaloupka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1375.1%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 1.8pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Chaloupka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Marsalek 1543 vs Chaloupka 1659
Chaloupka
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marsalek 20% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marsalek 50% vs Chaloupka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marsalek -1 · Chaloupka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Chaloupka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaloupka form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 3.40 / Chaloupka 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Chaloupka)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13235747
Marsalek3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 18 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Chaloupka1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it97% 65 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it77% 86 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMarsalek1wins
AwayChaloupka0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMarsalek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMarsalekChaloupkaM − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match49.045.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 124 vs 294 / 56147.6%52.4%59 / 124 vs 294 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaMarsalek 3.40/Chaloupka 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 3 · 07:15P. Marsalek49811514113F. Chaloupka45115111262
P. Marsalek10
LOct 3 · 05:45B. Moravec1.44111111113P. Marsalek2.63913421WOct 1 · 20:40J. Travnicek1.50310100P. Marsalek2.501112123LOct 1 · 20:15P. Marsalek1.618490D. Vitasek2.201111113LOct 1 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.6112511113P. Marsalek2.201011881LOct 1 · 18:15I. Heuman1.7311117123P. Marsalek2.003511101WSep 20 · 09:15P. Marsalek1.531213113J. Przybyla2.38101140WSep 20 · 07:40P. Marsalek1.73116511113A. Cizek2.0071111692LSep 20 · 06:40P. Marsalek1.801112111372T. Molin1.91614615113WSep 20 · 05:40P. Marsalek1.6111611153J. Przybyla2.209119131WSep 12 · 21:08P. Marsalek1.8371111113D. Vitasek1.83115611
F. Chaloupka10
LOct 3 · 07:45B. Moravec1.7311114113F. Chaloupka2.00551191WOct 3 · 06:15F. Chaloupka1.5011911113D. Velky Jr2.50911591WOct 1 · 16:35F. Chaloupka1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.208760LOct 1 · 15:40B. Moravec1.50118115113F. Chaloupka2.5051191162LOct 1 · 15:10K. Kleprlik1.83117119113F. Chaloupka1.8391171162WOct 1 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.67111511133D. Velky Jr2.107175111WSep 30 · 16:44J. Pribyl1.44136861F. Chaloupka2.63111111113LSep 30 · 15:45B. Moravec1.531111113F. Chaloupka2.389770LSep 30 · 15:15D. Stusek1.8311115113F. Chaloupka1.83881181LSep 30 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.837980J. Pribyl1.831111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Marsalek
F. Chaloupka
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.