TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Marsalek vs Daniel Vitasek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411911––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timePatrik Marsalek to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Patrik Marsalek at 60.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Marsalek 6–8 Daniel Vitasek Patrik Marsalek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0560.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Marsalek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Vitasek
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marsalek 1515 vs Vitasek 1477
Marsalek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marsalek 40% vs Vitasek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marsalek 70% vs Vitasek 30%
Marsalek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marsalek -2 · Vitasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Marsalek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marsalek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 1.615 / Vitasek 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Marsalek)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226670
Marsalek1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 9 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Vitasek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 90 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarsalek5wins
AwayVitasek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarsalek100%3 of 3
AwayVitasek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marsalek3Vitasek7n = 10Vitasek took 7 of 10
S2Marsalek7Vitasek3n = 10Marsalek took 7 of 10
S3Marsalek6Vitasek4n = 10Marsalek took 6 of 10
S4Marsalek3Vitasek2n = 5Marsalek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarsalekVitasekM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.433.2+1.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 121 vs 309 / 65547.1%47.2%57 / 121 vs 309 / 655Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarsalekMarsalek 1.61/Vitasek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Marsalek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 20:15P. Marsalek218490D. Vitasek331111113
WSep 12 · 21:08P. Marsalek4071111113D. Vitasek23115611
WSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek47111114113D. Vitasek431391291
LAug 26 · 20:10P. Marsalek35715851D. Vitasek46111311113
LAug 20 · 20:35P. Marsalek2019100D. Vitasek341111123
WAug 20 · 18:10P. Marsalek331111113D. Vitasek235990
LAug 10 · 20:50P. Marsalek4891171292D. Vitasek521191110113
WAug 10 · 18:45P. Marsalek341211113D. Vitasek2210570
LAug 3 · 21:05P. Marsalek33871171D. Vitasek3911116113
WAug 3 · 20:10P. Marsalek331111113D. Vitasek177820
P. Marsalek10
WOct 1 · 20:40J. Travnicek1.50310100P. Marsalek2.501112123LOct 1 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.6112511113P. Marsalek2.201011881LOct 1 · 18:15I. Heuman1.7311117123P. Marsalek2.003511101WSep 20 · 09:15P. Marsalek1.531213113J. Przybyla2.38101140WSep 20 · 07:40P. Marsalek1.73116511113A. Cizek2.0071111692LSep 20 · 06:40P. Marsalek1.801112111372T. Molin1.91614615113WSep 20 · 05:40P. Marsalek1.6111611153J. Przybyla2.209119131WSep 12 · 21:08P. Marsalek1.8371111113D. Vitasek1.83115611WSep 12 · 20:10I. Heuman1.61511751P. Marsalek2.2011611113WSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291
D. Vitasek10
WOct 1 · 21:10I. Heuman1.578960D. Vitasek2.251111113LOct 1 · 19:15D. Vitasek1.9111212512I. Heuman1.802111011113WOct 1 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.809910D. Vitasek1.911111113LSep 28 · 12:40D. Vitasek1.7311470L. Lasota2.001311113LSep 28 · 11:45P. Vinansky1.531111113D. Vitasek2.388960WSep 28 · 11:15L. Lasota1.801171141D. Vitasek1.9113116113LSep 28 · 10:15D. Vitasek1.91711691J. Volny1.8011311113WSep 28 · 08:43T. Krenek1.575960D. Vitasek2.251111113LSep 12 · 21:08P. Marsalek1.8371111113D. Vitasek1.83115611LSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291
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