TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Travnicek vs Jan Krupnik 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511118117118––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Travnicek above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jan Krupnik at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Travnicek 14–19 Jan Krupnik Jakub Travnicek has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:1254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krupnik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-19 in 33
Krupnik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Travnicek 1604 vs Krupnik 1577
Travnicek
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Travnicek 20% vs Krupnik 0%
Travnicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Travnicek 30% vs Krupnik 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Travnicek -3 · Krupnik -7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krupnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTravnicek 1.909 / Krupnik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krupnik)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240864
Travnicek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 58 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back30% 20 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Krupnik1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite54% won 135 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it73% 95 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTravnicek7wins
AwayKrupnik3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTravnicek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTravnicek75%3 of 4
AwayKrupnik33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Travnicek4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S2Travnicek8Krupnik2n = 10Travnicek took 8 of 10
S3Travnicek5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Travnicek7Krupnik2n = 9Travnicek took 7 of 9
S5Travnicek2Krupnik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTravnicekKrupnikT − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.838.7+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTravnicekKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 449 vs 487 / 94650.1%51.5%225 / 449 vs 487 / 946Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikTravnicek 1.91/Krupnik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Travnicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 07:15J. Travnicek3851111113J. Krupnik34118781
WSep 27 · 11:10J. Travnicek4311138113J. Krupnik366111181
LSep 7 · 18:15J. Travnicek50111391162J. Krupnik51915115113
WAug 21 · 18:40J. Travnicek46811115113J. Krupnik4211471192
WAug 15 · 18:15J. Travnicek471011411113J. Krupnik4112211882
LAug 8 · 18:15J. Travnicek341011581J. Krupnik4312911113
WJul 30 · 18:15J. Travnicek3611311113J. Krupnik27911251
WJul 5 · 14:45J. Travnicek341112113J. Krupnik2561090
WJun 28 · 14:45J. Travnicek46131111113J. Krupnik39158791
LJun 23 · 19:45J. Travnicek4481151192J. Krupnik49119117113
J. Travnicek10
WOct 4 · 08:15J. Skalicky1.83811431J. Travnicek1.8311911113LOct 4 · 05:45F. Chaloupka1.5711719113J. Travnicek2.255111771LOct 1 · 20:40J. Travnicek1.50310100P. Marsalek2.501112123LOct 1 · 19:45J. Travnicek1.67851191I. Heuman2.1011117113WOct 1 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.6112511113P. Marsalek2.201011881LOct 1 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.809910D. Vitasek1.911111113LSep 29 · 08:48J. Travnicek1.50861181D. Pawlik2.5011119113WSep 29 · 07:40J. Travnicek1.731212116113I. Heuman2.00141061182LSep 29 · 06:40J. Travnicek2.25113681R. Benes1.5781111113WSep 29 · 05:40J. Travnicek1.5741211113D. Pawlik2.251110991
J. Krupnik10
LOct 4 · 07:45F. Chaloupka1.7311126113J. Krupnik2.006101191LOct 4 · 06:15J. Krupnik2.00881181J. Skalicky1.7311116113LOct 3 · 16:46K. Kleprlik1.871111113J. Krupnik1.835570LOct 3 · 15:45M. Macurak1.6111118113J. Krupnik2.20771151LOct 3 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8311101011123J. Krupnik1.83812125102LOct 3 · 14:15J. Krupnik1.731091191T. Krenek2.0012119113LOct 3 · 12:45J. Krupnik1.801156101M. Macurak1.9181111123LOct 3 · 12:15J. Krupnik1.53122120D. Velky Jr2.381411143WOct 3 · 10:45M. Macurak1.731151661J. Krupnik2.0091118113WOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113
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