TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Molin vs Jan Krupnik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511811119911––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:08 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Molin above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jan Krupnik at 64.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Molin 0–3 Jan Krupnik Tomas Molin has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0864.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molin 1570 vs Krupnik 1589
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molin 80% vs Krupnik 20%
Molin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molin 60% vs Krupnik 10%
Molin
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molin +2 · Krupnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Krupnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolin 2.625 / Krupnik 1.444
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Krupnik)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240592
Molin2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 20 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Krupnik1.44
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 135 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it73% 95 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMolin0wins
AwayKrupnik3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKrupnik leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolinn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKrupnik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molin0Krupnik3n = 3Krupnik took 3 of 3
S2Molin0Krupnik3n = 3Krupnik took 3 of 3
S3Molin2Krupnik1n = 3Molin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMolinKrupnikM − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match32.742.7−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolinKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 316 vs 489 / 94952.9%51.5%167 / 316 vs 489 / 949Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikMolin 2.63/Krupnik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 4 · 11:15T. Molin33581191J. Krupnik4211119113
LJul 26 · 17:45T. Molin48118111172J. Krupnik53131199113
LJun 7 · 05:45T. Molin177370J. Krupnik331111113
T. Molin10
LOct 4 · 12:15J. Travnicek1.73111111113T. Molin2.00813971WOct 4 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.539870T. Molin2.381111113WSep 27 · 21:10D. Branny2.109101861T. Molin1.67111216113LSep 27 · 19:45D. Branny2.38881212113T. Molin1.531111101072WSep 27 · 19:15O. Skvor2.1011137592T. Molin1.676111111113WSep 27 · 18:15T. Molin1.571112113V. Reska2.2561090WSep 27 · 16:39A. Cizek2.1067111122T. Molin1.67111169113LSep 27 · 15:45T. Molin3.406570L. Dzida1.301111113LSep 27 · 14:45T. Molin1.53126119122J. Volny2.381011411143LSep 27 · 13:45T. Molin2.007118121A. Cizek1.7311911143
J. Krupnik10
WOct 4 · 11:45B. Mrowetz1.735570J. Krupnik2.001111113WOct 4 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.8311118113J. Travnicek1.83771191LOct 4 · 08:53J. Skalicky1.611111113J. Krupnik2.205680LOct 4 · 07:45F. Chaloupka1.7311126113J. Krupnik2.006101191LOct 4 · 07:15J. Travnicek1.9151111113J. Krupnik1.80118781LOct 4 · 06:15J. Krupnik2.00881181J. Skalicky1.7311116113LOct 3 · 16:46K. Kleprlik1.871111113J. Krupnik1.835570LOct 3 · 15:45M. Macurak1.6111118113J. Krupnik2.20771151LOct 3 · 15:15K. Kleprlik1.8311101011123J. Krupnik1.83812125102LOct 3 · 14:15J. Krupnik1.731091191T. Krenek2.0012119113
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