TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bruno Mrowetz vs Jan Krupnik 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511711––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:39 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 50 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 54.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 20–26 Jan Krupnik Bruno Mrowetz has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3954.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-26 in 46
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1636 vs Krupnik 1589
Mrowetz
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 40% vs Krupnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 60% vs Krupnik 20%
Mrowetz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz -2 · Krupnik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Mrowetz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.727 / Krupnik 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Mrowetz)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240608
Mrowetz1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 78 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it75% 58 of 77
Krupnik2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 103 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back32% 29 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz5wins
AwayKrupnik5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz57.1%4 of 7
AwayKrupnik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz7Krupnik3n = 10Mrowetz took 7 of 10
S2Mrowetz4Krupnik6n = 10Krupnik took 6 of 10
S3Mrowetz5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrowetz5Krupnik2n = 7Mrowetz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzKrupnikM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.735.1+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 525 vs 489 / 94950.5%51.5%265 / 525 vs 489 / 949Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzMrowetz 1.73/Krupnik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 09:09B. Mrowetz331111113J. Krupnik259970
LOct 1 · 07:40B. Mrowetz28114851J. Krupnik4181111113
LSep 28 · 17:15B. Mrowetz44123711112J. Krupnik531011118133
WSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz3911611113J. Krupnik31311981
WSep 23 · 13:08B. Mrowetz351113113J. Krupnik2471160
LSep 23 · 12:15B. Mrowetz185850J. Krupnik331111113
WSep 21 · 17:08B. Mrowetz4111118113J. Krupnik27351181
LSep 21 · 14:15B. Mrowetz5013991182J. Krupnik501111116113
WSep 3 · 11:40B. Mrowetz4291111113J. Krupnik27116641
LSep 1 · 06:45B. Mrowetz37981191J. Krupnik4011117113
B. Mrowetz10
LOct 4 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.61111111652J. Travnicek2.20137811113LOct 4 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.539870T. Molin2.381111113WOct 1 · 13:05B. Mrowetz1.9151111113D. Velky Jr1.80116171LOct 1 · 11:40D. Velky Jr2.201112113B. Mrowetz1.6181090WOct 1 · 11:10T. Kindl2.109940B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.831111115113L. Dzida1.8385131162WOct 1 · 09:09J. Krupnik2.109970B. Mrowetz1.671111113LOct 1 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.80114851J. Krupnik1.9181111113WOct 1 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.6711911113R. Benes2.10611771WOct 1 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.731211119113E. Precek2.00107131192
J. Krupnik10
WOct 4 · 11:15T. Molin2.63581191J. Krupnik1.4411119113WOct 4 · 10:15J. Krupnik1.8311118113J. Travnicek1.83771191LOct 4 · 08:53J. Skalicky1.611111113J. Krupnik2.205680LOct 4 · 07:45F. Chaloupka1.7311126113J. Krupnik2.006101191LOct 4 · 07:15J. Travnicek1.9151111113J. Krupnik1.80118781LOct 4 · 06:15J. Krupnik2.00881181J. Skalicky1.7311116113LOct 3 · 16:46K. Kleprlik1.871111113J. Krupnik1.835570LOct 3 · 15:45M. Macurak1.6111118113J. Krupnik2.20771151LOct 1 · 09:09J. Krupnik2.109970B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.80114851J. Krupnik1.9181111113
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