TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dalibor Velky Jr vs Bruno Mrowetz 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210119––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:38 and never touched: 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 61.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 12–10 Bruno Mrowetz Bruno Mrowetz has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3861.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
clears by 0.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Velky Jr
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velky Jr 1592 vs Mrowetz 1673
Mrowetz
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velky Jr 80% vs Mrowetz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velky Jr 40% vs Mrowetz 70%
Mrowetz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Velky Jr +1 · Mrowetz +3
Mrowetz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Mrowetz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelky Jr 2.20 / Mrowetz 1.615
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Mrowetz)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13224987
Velky Jr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 116 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Mrowetz1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite59% won 76 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVelky Jr6wins
AwayMrowetz4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVelky Jr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelky Jr100%3 of 3
AwayMrowetz57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velky Jr3Mrowetz7n = 10Mrowetz took 7 of 10
S2Velky Jr7Mrowetz3n = 10Velky Jr took 7 of 10
S3Velky Jr5Mrowetz5n = 10split evenly
S4Velky Jr4Mrowetz1n = 5Velky Jr took 4 of 5
S5Velky Jr2Mrowetz1n = 3Velky Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVelky JrMrowetzV − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.637.2+1.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelky JrMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 581 vs 264 / 52149.7%50.7%289 / 581 vs 264 / 521Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzVelky Jr 2.20/Mrowetz 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.9%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Velky Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 15:45D. Velky Jr55571316143B. Mrowetz5911111114122
LSep 7 · 11:10D. Velky Jr2110830B. Mrowetz341211113
LSep 3 · 09:14D. Velky Jr354147101B. Mrowetz46111211123
WSep 3 · 08:15D. Velky Jr4581211143B. Mrowetz3811105121
WJul 22 · 07:10D. Velky Jr391314123B. Mrowetz331112100
WJul 5 · 20:45D. Velky Jr361111143B. Mrowetz2668120
WJul 5 · 20:10D. Velky Jr521011911113B. Mrowetz3612311372
LJul 5 · 16:10D. Velky Jr4061161162B. Mrowetz47115119113
LJun 16 · 09:40D. Velky Jr3012990B. Mrowetz361411113
WJun 12 · 11:45D. Velky Jr331111113B. Mrowetz174580
D. Velky Jr10
WOct 1 · 10:40D. Velky Jr1.911511133L. Dzida1.80138110LOct 1 · 09:40D. Velky Jr1.67911190T. Kindl2.101113213WSep 30 · 09:14D. Velky Jr1.91114911153L. Kantor1.80911113132WSep 30 · 07:45D. Velky Jr1.671211113I. Heuman2.1010970WSep 30 · 06:45D. Velky Jr2.3811115113T. Krenek1.53761141LSep 30 · 05:45D. Velky Jr2.1011911282L. Kantor1.67511611113LSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik1.501616113D. Velky Jr2.50141450LSep 28 · 20:15L. Slavik1.571011111113D. Velky Jr2.2512741162LSep 28 · 19:15D. Velky Jr2.259990J. Krupnik1.571111113LSep 28 · 17:45J. Gembala1.4011117113D. Velky Jr2.75491171
B. Mrowetz10
WOct 1 · 11:10T. Kindl2.109940B. Mrowetz1.671111113WOct 1 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.831111115113L. Dzida1.8385131162WOct 1 · 09:09J. Krupnik2.109970B. Mrowetz1.671111113LOct 1 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.80114851J. Krupnik1.9181111113WOct 1 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.6711911113R. Benes2.10611771WOct 1 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.731211119113E. Precek2.00107131192LSep 28 · 17:15B. Mrowetz1.73123711112J. Krupnik2.001011118133LSep 28 · 15:45F. Chaloupka1.837181111133B. Mrowetz1.83112058112WSep 28 · 15:15L. Kantor2.5012750B. Mrowetz1.501411113WSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz1.7311611113J. Krupnik2.00311981
Upcoming Matches
D. Velky Jr
B. Mrowetz
Nothing scheduled
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