TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dalibor Velky Jr vs Tomas Krenek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116511114––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:40 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Tomas Krenek at 61.6%
66 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 17–27 Tomas Krenek Dalibor Velky Jr has won 17 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4061.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-27 in 44
Krenek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velky Jr 1571 vs Krenek 1574
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velky Jr 0% vs Krenek 20%
Krenek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velky Jr 20% vs Krenek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Velky Jr -5 · Krenek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Krenek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelky Jr 2.375 / Krenek 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Krenek)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13219697
Velky Jr2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 114 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Krenek1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 124 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it73% 82 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVelky Jr3wins
AwayKrenek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVelky Jr50%2 of 4
AwayKrenek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velky Jr4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Velky Jr4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Velky Jr3Krenek7n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S4Velky Jr6Krenek1n = 7Velky Jr took 6 of 7
S5Velky Jr0Krenek4n = 4Krenek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVelky JrKrenekV − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.140.7−1.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelky JrKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 577 vs 496 / 97149.6%51.1%286 / 577 vs 496 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekVelky Jr 2.38/Krenek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Velky Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 06:45D. Velky Jr3811115113T. Krenek28761141
WSep 24 · 07:40D. Velky Jr45101113113T. Krenek361241191
LSep 22 · 13:13D. Velky Jr4311116782T. Krenek47771111113
LSep 22 · 11:15D. Velky Jr4311581182T. Krenek49911117113
LSep 8 · 10:10D. Velky Jr2710890T. Krenek341211113
LSep 8 · 08:38D. Velky Jr35815120T. Krenek421117143
WSep 8 · 08:10D. Velky Jr47111411113T. Krenek32316671
LSep 6 · 09:20D. Velky Jr217590T. Krenek331111113
LSep 6 · 05:45D. Velky Jr48951113102T. Krenek531111811123
LSep 3 · 06:45D. Velky Jr44121151152T. Krenek53149118113
D. Velky Jr10
LSep 30 · 05:45D. Velky Jr2.1011911282L. Kantor1.67511611113LSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik1.501616113D. Velky Jr2.50141450LSep 28 · 20:15L. Slavik1.571011111113D. Velky Jr2.2512741162LSep 28 · 19:15D. Velky Jr2.259990J. Krupnik1.571111113LSep 28 · 17:45J. Gembala1.4011117113D. Velky Jr2.75491171WSep 27 · 16:40J. Skvrna1.5761190D. Velky Jr2.251113113LSep 27 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.201111061L. Slavik1.6111712113LSep 27 · 14:40J. Skvrna1.579111011113D. Velky Jr2.2511112572WSep 27 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.57871161D. Velky Jr2.2511117113LSep 27 · 13:17D. Velky Jr1.73117991L. Dzida2.0091111113
T. Krenek10
LSep 30 · 06:15I. Heuman1.83512119113T. Krenek1.83111081192LSep 28 · 08:43T. Krenek1.575960D. Vitasek2.251111113LSep 28 · 07:40T. Krenek1.73811121152R. Sedlacek2.00116147113WSep 28 · 06:40T. Krenek1.579151410123D. Vitasek2.2511131212102LSep 28 · 05:40T. Krenek1.401191191M. Raska2.7591113113WSep 24 · 12:39D. Pawlik1.80811111172T. Krenek1.91111395113LSep 24 · 11:40T. Krenek1.676680D. Pawlik2.101111113LSep 24 · 10:40T. Krenek1.73651181R. Sedlacek2.0011119113LSep 24 · 09:40T. Krenek1.5788130L. Dzida2.251111153WSep 24 · 08:45T. Krenek1.63121111113T. Kindl2.13148381
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