TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Skvrna vs Radek Benes 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711711118711––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 54–38 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 38 of their 92 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
54-38 in 92
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 16 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1689 vs Benes 1682
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 80% vs Benes 100%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 60% vs Benes 80%
Benes
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +1 · Benes +5
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.80 / Benes 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skvrna)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13246042
Skvrna1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 233 of 394
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it75% 162 of 216
Benes1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 56 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna3wins
AwayBenes7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrnan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBenes87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Skvrna7Benes3n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S3Skvrna6Benes4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S4Skvrna1Benes7n = 8Benes took 7 of 8
S5Skvrna1Benes2n = 3Benes took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaBenesS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.640.1−3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 857 vs 532 / 101558%52.4%497 / 857 vs 532 / 1015Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.80/Benes 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 10:15J. Skvrna51911115153R. Benes50118711132
LSep 14 · 13:15J. Skvrna35812781R. Benes43111011113
LSep 14 · 11:15J. Skvrna35781281R. Benes43111110113
WSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna4311811133R. Benes376119111
LAug 31 · 13:05J. Skvrna4671311962R. Benes531111911113
LAug 31 · 11:10J. Skvrna25711251R. Benes4111811113
LAug 25 · 13:09J. Skvrna4271111672R. Benes47115911113
LAug 25 · 10:40J. Skvrna227870R. Benes331111113
WAug 11 · 07:40J. Skvrna331111113R. Benes179440
LAug 6 · 13:23J. Skvrna34911681R. Benes3711411113
J. Skvrna10
LOct 5 · 12:45J. Skvrna1.8039130M. Moravec1.911111153WOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.7316611163M. Moravec2.0014119141LOct 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.737911111T. Krenek2.0011118133WOct 3 · 13:15D. Velky Jr1.6111101291J. Skvrna2.2051214113WOct 3 · 11:45M. Macurak2.00571661J. Skvrna1.73111114113WOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113LOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113WOct 2 · 16:45A. Baros2.506580J. Skvrna1.461111113WOct 2 · 16:15J. Skvrna1.831211113J. Rak1.8310960LOct 2 · 14:45F. Sikora1.44125117113J. Skvrna2.63101131172
R. Benes10
WOct 5 · 11:15T. Krenek1.73114871R. Benes2.0061111113WOct 5 · 10:15R. Benes1.91111511113M. Moravec1.808131381WOct 5 · 09:25L. Slavik2.0011111061R. Benes1.7313612113WOct 5 · 08:15R. Benes1.911011129113T. Krenek1.80128101192WOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113LOct 5 · 06:15L. Slavik2.2011111011113R. Benes1.6113412672WOct 4 · 17:15R. Benes2.101113410153D. Velky Jr1.678111112132LOct 4 · 15:40L. Dzida2.2571111113R. Benes1.57114771WOct 4 · 15:10R. Solle2.385136121R. Benes1.53111111143WOct 4 · 14:10R. Benes2.2091111113D. Velky Jr1.61118361
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