TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Krenek vs Bruno Mrowetz 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711611––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Krenek above · Bruno Mrowetz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Tomas Krenek at 55.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krenek 25–18 Bruno Mrowetz Bruno Mrowetz has won 18 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0855.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krenek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-18 in 43
Krenek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krenek 1683 vs Mrowetz 1590
Krenek
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krenek 80% vs Mrowetz 20%
Krenek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krenek 80% vs Mrowetz 20%
Krenek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krenek +4 · Mrowetz -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Krenek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrowetz form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrenek 1.727 / Mrowetz 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Krenek)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251673
Krenek1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 129 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it72% 85 of 118
Mrowetz2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 63 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrenek8wins
AwayMrowetz2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrenek83.3%5 of 6
AwayMrowetz25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krenek6Mrowetz4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S2Krenek6Mrowetz4n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Krenek5Mrowetz5n = 10split evenly
S4Krenek6Mrowetz3n = 9Krenek took 6 of 9
S5Krenek3Mrowetz0n = 3Krenek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrenekMrowetzK − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.440.2+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrenekMrowetzBasisWin rate · lifetime514 / 999 vs 267 / 53351.5%50.1%514 / 999 vs 267 / 533Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekKrenek 1.73/Mrowetz 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mrowetz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 08:53T. Krenek41115311113B. Mrowetz4581111872
WOct 5 · 05:45T. Krenek48611118123B. Mrowetz46118611102
WSep 17 · 14:15T. Krenek4211911113B. Mrowetz27511651
LSep 3 · 05:45T. Krenek34613781B. Mrowetz44111111113
WSep 2 · 11:15T. Krenek4311128123B. Mrowetz3651011101
WAug 25 · 12:38T. Krenek591051122113B. Mrowetz59121182082
WAug 25 · 11:10T. Krenek331111113B. Mrowetz195680
WAug 24 · 10:10T. Krenek54121219113B. Mrowetz4814101771
WAug 12 · 10:40T. Krenek4111117123B. Mrowetz355911101
LAug 10 · 09:40T. Krenek39129991B. Mrowetz43101111113
T. Krenek10
WOct 6 · 10:40J. Krupnik1.7381471172T. Krenek2.001112118113WOct 6 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.73911111182T. Krenek2.00114138113WOct 6 · 09:08T. Krenek1.671112911113D. Velky Jr2.10710111362WOct 6 · 07:40M. Moravec2.004880T. Krenek1.731111113LOct 6 · 07:10R. Sedlacek2.0011115113T. Krenek1.73881191WOct 6 · 06:10T. Krenek1.67711511113D. Velky Jr2.1011911952WOct 5 · 13:15R. Benes1.915980T. Krenek1.801111113WOct 5 · 12:15M. Moravec1.83651391T. Krenek1.83111111113LOct 5 · 11:15T. Krenek1.73114871R. Benes2.0061111113WOct 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.737911111T. Krenek2.0011118133
B. Mrowetz10
WOct 6 · 12:40J. Krupnik1.80116116112B. Mrowetz1.91711711133LOct 6 · 11:10B. Mrowetz1.91911971J. Skvrna1.8011711113LOct 6 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.83771111113B. Mrowetz1.8311119962LOct 5 · 08:53T. Krenek1.40115311113B. Mrowetz2.7581111872WOct 5 · 07:45B. Mrowetz1.501111113L. Slavik2.506880LOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113LOct 5 · 05:45B. Mrowetz1.91118611102T. Krenek1.80611118123WOct 4 · 12:50T. Molin2.7591611692B. Mrowetz1.401114811113LOct 4 · 11:45B. Mrowetz1.735570J. Krupnik2.001111113LOct 4 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.61111111652J. Travnicek2.20137811113
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