TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Moravec vs Tomas Krenek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6115111311911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krenek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Tomas Krenek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Krenek at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 16–25 Tomas Krenek Michal Moravec has won 16 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Krenek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-25 in 41
Krenek
Correct
gap of 9 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1590 vs Krenek 1631
Krenek
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Krenek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 40% vs Krenek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -3 · Krenek -1
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krenek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krenek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.833 / Krenek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krenek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13245686
Moravec1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Krenek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayKrenek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrenek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec33.3%1 of 3
AwayKrenek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec3Krenek7n = 10Krenek took 7 of 10
S2Moravec4Krenek6n = 10Krenek took 6 of 10
S3Moravec2Krenek8n = 10Krenek took 8 of 10
S4Moravec2Krenek5n = 7Krenek took 5 of 7
S5Moravec3Krenek1n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecKrenekM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.744.3−5.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecKrenekBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 418 vs 508 / 99251%51.2%213 / 418 vs 508 / 992Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrenekMoravec 1.83/Krenek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krenek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krenek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 12:15M. Moravec33651391T. Krenek44111111113
LSep 22 · 06:45M. Moravec431171691T. Krenek4881118113
LSep 21 · 10:45M. Moravec361011691T. Krenek4212811113
LAug 31 · 12:35M. Moravec195590T. Krenek331111113
WAug 31 · 10:40M. Moravec561112157113T. Krenek561310131192
LAug 18 · 15:40M. Moravec53118121392T. Krenek547111411113
LJul 13 · 12:15M. Moravec205960T. Krenek331111113
LJul 9 · 12:45M. Moravec2761290T. Krenek361114113
WJul 9 · 12:10M. Moravec52913711123T. Krenek481111115102
WJun 30 · 10:10M. Moravec481111105113T. Krenek4989121192
M. Moravec10
WOct 5 · 12:45J. Skvrna1.8039130M. Moravec1.911111153LOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.7316611163M. Moravec2.0014119141LOct 5 · 10:15R. Benes1.91111511113M. Moravec1.808131381LOct 3 · 17:19M. Moravec1.61911701M. Raska2.2011811113WOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192WOct 3 · 14:40M. Moravec1.537101111113M. Raska2.3811124962LOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113WOct 1 · 17:00V. Konvicka2.0011611151M. Moravec1.7391113173LOct 1 · 15:45A. Kanak2.001111911113M. Moravec1.7313711792LOct 1 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.10111112113M. Moravec1.671391091
T. Krenek10
WOct 5 · 13:15R. Benes1.915980T. Krenek1.801111113LOct 5 · 11:15T. Krenek1.73114871R. Benes2.0061111113WOct 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.737911111T. Krenek2.0011118133WOct 5 · 08:53T. Krenek1.40115311113B. Mrowetz2.7581111872LOct 5 · 08:15R. Benes1.911011129113T. Krenek1.80128101192LOct 5 · 07:15T. Krenek1.91411951L. Slavik1.8011411113WOct 5 · 05:45B. Mrowetz1.91118611102T. Krenek1.80611118123LOct 3 · 17:14M. Macurak1.831114163T. Krenek1.83612140WOct 3 · 16:15T. Krenek1.5791111113K. Kleprlik2.25118391LOct 3 · 14:45M. Macurak1.911211413113T. Krenek1.80106111572
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