TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Dominik Stefek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111186111214––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 81 set 4, 12-14 · our read held Jiri Matus at 56.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 3–1 Dominik Stefek Dominik Stefek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:38What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Matus
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1392 vs Stefek 1397
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Stefek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 60% vs Stefek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -1 · Stefek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Matus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.67 / Stefek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Matus)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13213867
Matus1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
89%takes the first set · 8 of 9
As favourite59% won 86 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it75% 61 of 81
Stefek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 27 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back28% 7 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMatus3wins
AwayStefek1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderMatus leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus100%3 of 3
AwayStefekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus3Stefek1n = 4Matus took 3 of 4
S2Matus3Stefek1n = 4Matus took 3 of 4
S3Matus1Stefek3n = 4Stefek took 3 of 4
S4Matus1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMatusStefekM − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.839.2+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 445 vs 51 / 10351.9%49.5%231 / 445 vs 51 / 103Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.67/Stefek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 29 · 07:45J. Matus378116121D. Stefek4411811143
WAug 13 · 08:10J. Matus47116811113D. Stefek4491111762
WAug 2 · 19:10J. Matus541111911123D. Stefek46841113102
WAug 2 · 16:10J. Matus331111113D. Stefek238960
J. Matus10
LSep 29 · 06:45J. Matus1.5713812682M. Sobota2.2511111011113WSep 29 · 05:45J. Matus1.83111189113R. Zajac1.8386111122WSep 22 · 09:15J. Matus1.731111143A. Strelec2.0097120WSep 22 · 08:10J. Matus1.3311911113L. Snr3.25411481LSep 22 · 06:40A. Strelec1.83119811113J. Matus1.8391111982WSep 22 · 06:10J. Sevecek1.801011371J. Matus1.9112611113WSep 21 · 08:55J. Matus2.1011115113I. Jemelka1.65581181LSep 21 · 08:10A. Strelec1.801012711113J. Matus1.91121011752WSep 21 · 07:10J. Matus2.2511111113I. Jemelka1.57911571LSep 21 · 05:40J. Sindler1.67512811113J. Matus2.10111011462
D. Stefek10
WSep 29 · 07:15R. Zajac2.25811591D. Stefek1.5711811113WSep 29 · 06:15D. Stefek1.5061111113M. Sobota2.50119681LSep 13 · 09:15D. Stefek1.80714101392J. Sindler1.9111121211113LSep 13 · 08:15D. Stefek1.5712740R. Jancak2.251411113WSep 13 · 06:45T. Ogrocki2.5011451192D. Stefek1.50311119113WSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 09:20D. Stefek1.831111113J. Sindler1.839580LSep 11 · 07:45D. Stefek1.671310155102P. Sturma2.1011121311123WSep 11 · 06:45D. Stefek1.83124114113J. Sindler1.83101181182WSep 11 · 05:45D. Stefek1.61611811113R. Jancak2.2011211722
Upcoming Matches
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D. Stefek
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