TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Skupinski vs Artur Kubiak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1166111614511118
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:02 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Artur Kubiak at 68.8%
99 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 3–16 Artur Kubiak Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 3 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kubiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-16 in 19
Kubiak
Wrong
gap of 13 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1243 vs Kubiak 1389
Kubiak
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 40% vs Kubiak 80%
Kubiak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 40% vs Kubiak 70%
Kubiak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski -1 · Kubiak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kubiak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 2.63 / Kubiak 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kubiak)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13182578
Skupinski2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 35 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Kubiak1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite69% won 161 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it84% 113 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkupinski2wins
AwayKubiak8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkupinski40%2 of 5
AwayKubiak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skupinski5Kubiak5n = 10split evenly
S2Skupinski3Kubiak7n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S3Skupinski2Kubiak8n = 10Kubiak took 8 of 10
S4Skupinski2Kubiak6n = 8Kubiak took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkupinskiKubiakS − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.739.9−9.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 404 vs 493 / 90239.1%54.7%158 / 404 vs 493 / 902Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakSkupinski 2.63/Kubiak 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skupinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LDec 24 · 02:55A. Skupinski301131061A. Kubiak4281112113
WDec 23 · 20:55A. Skupinski40113211133A. Kubiak51911119112
LAug 28 · 02:45A. Skupinski31117581A. Kubiak3961111113
WAug 27 · 23:05A. Skupinski4211911113A. Kubiak32511791
LAug 14 · 04:20A. Skupinski188550A. Kubiak331111113
LAug 13 · 18:45A. Skupinski29811551A. Kubiak3911611113
LJul 8 · 22:20A. Skupinski175480A. Kubiak331111113
LJul 3 · 20:20A. Skupinski29411951A. Kubiak4211911113
LJun 27 · 23:35A. Skupinski4211114792A. Kubiak46761111113
LJun 27 · 17:35A. Skupinski29931161A. Kubiak4211119113
A. Skupinski10
LSep 23 · 19:40K. Delikatny1.571111133A. Skupinski2.2538110LSep 23 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.449111111113A. Skupinski2.6311139242LSep 23 · 16:35A. Skupinski2.6348121152Z. Nocun1.441111104113WSep 23 · 15:50A. Staniczek2.20109100A. Skupinski1.611211123WSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.2511114492K. Kwiatkowski1.33841111113LSep 16 · 17:20A. Skupinski3.5011811652A. Fomin1.28811911113WSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153LSep 16 · 15:25A. Skupinski2.256740M. Baran1.571111113WSep 9 · 19:40K. Delikatny1.44411111352A. Skupinski2.63115915113
A. Kubiak10
LSep 23 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.7311134133A. Kubiak2.0071111111LSep 23 · 19:20A. Kubiak1.8311101161Z. Nocun1.8313128113WSep 23 · 16:55A. Staniczek3.00121340A. Kubiak1.361415113LSep 22 · 02:20J. Michalik2.00311511163A. Kubiak1.71116118142WSep 22 · 01:35A. Staniczek2.75111180A. Kubiak1.401313113WSep 21 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.866840A. Kubiak1.801111113LSep 21 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.541111113A. Kubiak2.256580WSep 21 · 21:10M. Machelski2.3581111892A. Kubiak1.50115611113WSep 21 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.10951161A. Kubiak1.6511113113WSep 21 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.8051311842A. Kubiak1.391111411113
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