TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Kovalenko vs Maksym Stetsenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210611119611114
Maksym Stetsenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 91 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 72.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 22–4 Maksym Stetsenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 4 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-4 in 26
Kovalenko
Correct
gap of 18 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1373 vs Stetsenko 1362
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 0% vs Stetsenko 40%
Stetsenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 30% vs Stetsenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -5 · Stetsenko -2
Kovalenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.36 / Stetsenko 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Kovalenko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13180076
Kovalenko1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 77 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 76
Stetsenko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 93 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko9wins
AwayStetsenko1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko87.5%7 of 8
AwayStetsenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko8Stetsenko2n = 10Kovalenko took 8 of 10
S2Kovalenko4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalenko6Stetsenko4n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Kovalenko8Stetsenko2n = 10Kovalenko took 8 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoStetsenkoK − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.734.0+6.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime283 / 539 vs 444 / 85652.5%51.9%283 / 539 vs 444 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.36/Stetsenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:20A. Kovalenko4011117113M. Stetsenko29381171
WSep 9 · 13:30A. Kovalenko4011117113M. Stetsenko29641181
WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko4112711113M. Stetsenko371011791
WSep 4 · 08:05A. Kovalenko4311813113M. Stetsenko301111171
LSep 3 · 07:20A. Kovalenko25116171M. Stetsenko4181111113
WAug 7 · 10:30A. Kovalenko50119811113M. Stetsenko4381111762
WAug 6 · 06:20A. Kovalenko511171111113M. Stetsenko3831131382
WJul 31 · 10:00A. Kovalenko4011513113M. Stetsenko378111171
WJul 26 · 17:30A. Kovalenko4291111113M. Stetsenko31115961
WJul 23 · 09:20A. Kovalenko3521111113M. Stetsenko25114551
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 23 · 19:00O. Lipeiko1.8081111113A. Kovalenko1.91117731LSep 23 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.75115118113A. Kovalenko1.4061161162LSep 23 · 13:30S. Skhabitskiy2.501110311113A. Kovalenko1.5071211742LSep 23 · 12:30V. Smyk2.00271111153A. Kovalenko1.73111155132LSep 22 · 11:35O. Leonenko1.73126113113A. Kovalenko2.00101151152LSep 22 · 10:35F. Voinarovskyi1.8311115113A. Kovalenko1.83781141WSep 22 · 09:05I. Emets1.67511561A. Kovalenko2.1011611113WSep 22 · 07:05A. Kurtenko1.801041141A. Kovalenko1.9112117113LSep 22 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.501111113A. Kovalenko2.505860LSep 17 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.25612911113A. Kovalenko1.57111011782
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 23 · 18:30O. Ovsiienko1.8315114872M. Stetsenko1.831371111113LSep 23 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311913113M. Stetsenko1.836111161LSep 23 · 14:00O. Lipeiko1.571111113M. Stetsenko2.255670WSep 23 · 12:00S. Skhabitskiy1.83128100M. Stetsenko1.831411123WSep 21 · 11:35O. Ovsiienko1.8078131242M. Stetsenko1.9111111110113LSep 21 · 10:35S. Skhabitskiy2.001311113M. Stetsenko1.7311680LSep 21 · 09:05D. Ponomarenko1.7311123113M. Stetsenko2.006101161LSep 21 · 07:05O. Mytsyk2.501111113M. Stetsenko1.509840WSep 21 · 05:05V. Mukhin3.75117111032M. Stetsenko1.25611912113WSep 19 · 10:30M. Stetsenko1.801211113S. Skhabitskiy1.9110540
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