TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Lipeiko vs Anatolii Kovalenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Oleksandr Lipeiko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117117113––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Lipeiko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Lipeiko above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 69 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Oleksandr Lipeiko at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lipeiko 9–9 Anatolii Kovalenko Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lipeiko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lipeiko 1479 vs Kovalenko 1383
Lipeiko
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lipeiko 100% vs Kovalenko 20%
Lipeiko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lipeiko 80% vs Kovalenko 30%
Lipeiko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lipeiko +5 · Kovalenko +1
Lipeiko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Lipeiko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLipeiko 1.80 / Kovalenko 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Lipeiko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13180042
Lipeiko1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 56 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Kovalenko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLipeiko5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLipeiko71.4%5 of 7
AwayKovalenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lipeiko7Kovalenko3n = 10Lipeiko took 7 of 10
S2Lipeiko6Kovalenko4n = 10Lipeiko took 6 of 10
S3Lipeiko4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Lipeiko0Kovalenko6n = 6Kovalenko took 6 of 6
S5Lipeiko3Kovalenko2n = 5Lipeiko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLipeikoKovalenkoL − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.7+1.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLipeikoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 519 vs 284 / 54048.6%52.6%252 / 519 vs 284 / 540Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LipeikoLipeiko 1.80/Kovalenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Lipeiko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lipeiko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 09:20O. Lipeiko501111710113A. Kovalenko4246111292
LSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko29109100A. Kovalenko351211123
LAug 25 · 12:10O. Lipeiko401311881A. Kovalenko4415711113
LAug 17 · 07:05O. Lipeiko197750A. Kovalenko331111113
LAug 11 · 14:40O. Lipeiko4511118782A. Kovalenko49881111113
WJul 25 · 17:30O. Lipeiko45113119113A. Kovalenko4991191192
WJul 13 · 06:50O. Lipeiko48119134113A. Kovalenko41511111132
LJul 8 · 06:05O. Lipeiko45111184112A. Kovalenko47841111133
WJul 1 · 12:30O. Lipeiko331111113A. Kovalenko199640
WMay 31 · 06:50O. Lipeiko331111113A. Kovalenko185490
O. Lipeiko10
WSep 23 · 17:00V. Smyk2.20871941O. Lipeiko1.61111117113WSep 23 · 15:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25571191O. Lipeiko1.5711117113WSep 23 · 14:00O. Lipeiko1.571111113M. Stetsenko2.255670WSep 23 · 13:00O. Ovsiienko2.75711371O. Lipeiko1.4011711113WSep 20 · 19:00D. Ponomarenko2.10111040O. Lipeiko1.671312113LSep 20 · 17:30O. Lipeiko1.3011127982O. Ovsiienko3.409101111113WSep 20 · 15:30V. Smyk2.10711781O. Lipeiko1.6711711113WSep 20 · 13:32V. Nechai1.57112771O. Lipeiko2.2591111113LSep 20 · 12:30S. Skhabitskiy2.501211113O. Lipeiko1.5010890WSep 19 · 18:30O. Lipeiko1.7311811123S. Baranskyi2.006119101
A. Kovalenko10
WSep 23 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.36126116113M. Stetsenko3.00101191142LSep 23 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.75115118113A. Kovalenko1.4061161162LSep 23 · 13:30S. Skhabitskiy2.501110311113A. Kovalenko1.5071211742LSep 23 · 12:30V. Smyk2.00271111153A. Kovalenko1.73111155132LSep 22 · 11:35O. Leonenko1.73126113113A. Kovalenko2.00101151152LSep 22 · 10:35F. Voinarovskyi1.8311115113A. Kovalenko1.83781141WSep 22 · 09:05I. Emets1.67511561A. Kovalenko2.1011611113WSep 22 · 07:05A. Kurtenko1.801041141A. Kovalenko1.9112117113LSep 22 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.501111113A. Kovalenko2.505860LSep 17 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.25612911113A. Kovalenko1.57111011782
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