Michal Makara vs Volodymyr Burylov 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Michal Makara

Home

2.20

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 4

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1311511311911––

Volodymyr Burylov

Away

1.62

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:43 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%

Graded at full time

Volodymyr Burylov to win

58.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingMichal Makara above · Volodymyr Burylov below

Set 1 · 13-11

Set 2 · 5-11

Set 3 · 3-11

Set 4 · 9-11

Point 74 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 58.1%

74 points played in total.

H2H Michal Makara 12–10 Volodymyr Burylov Volodymyr Burylov has won 10 of their 22 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Burylov

Makara 2.20/Burylov 1.61

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

58.1%

Burylov · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Burylov won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 06:43

58.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 3.8pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Burylov

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

12-10 in 22

Makara

Wrong

gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Makara 1647 vs Burylov 1693

Burylov

Correct

both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Makara 80% vs Burylov 20%

Makara

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Makara 40% vs Burylov 30%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Makara +4 · Burylov -1

Makara

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Burylov: form 20%, the price implies 62%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMakara 2.20 / Burylov 1.615

Signal prob.42% / 58%

Edge (Burylov)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMakara6wins

AwayBurylov4wins

3 of 10 to a deciderMakara leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMakara75%3 of 4

AwayBurylov50%3 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Makara4Burylov6n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10

S2Makara6Burylov4n = 10Makara took 6 of 10

S3Makara5Burylov5n = 10split evenly

S4Makara4Burylov2n = 6Makara took 4 of 6

S5Makara2Burylov1n = 3Makara took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricMakaraBurylovM − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.838.5−1.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMakaraBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime509 / 1061 vs 222 / 45748%48.6%509 / 1061 vs 222 / 457Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.7per match

Setka Cup · #13281616

Makara2.20

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 4

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog44% won 149 of 336

Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 183

Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 89

Burylov1.61

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite41% won 46 of 112

Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18

Up 1–0, closes it61% 33 of 54

Michal Makara vs Volodymyr Burylov 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Michal Makara vs Volodymyr Burylov 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.