Michal Makara vs Ladislav Dobias 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Michal Makara

Home

2.20

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 3

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1412119811311117

Ladislav Dobias

Away

1.62

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:37 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%

Graded at full time

Ladislav Dobias to win

58.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMichal Makara above · Ladislav Dobias below

Set 1 · 14-12

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 3-11

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 97 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 58.1%

97 points played in total.

H2H Michal Makara 11–19 Ladislav Dobias Michal Makara has won 11 of their 30 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Dobias

Makara 2.20/Dobias 1.61

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.1%

Dobias · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Makara won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 05:37

58.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615

short by 3.8pp

61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Dobias

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

11-19 in 30

Dobias

Wrong

gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Makara 1631 vs Dobias 1653

Dobias

Wrong

both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Makara 60% vs Dobias 20%

Makara

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Makara 30% vs Dobias 20%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Makara +3 · Dobias -1

Makara

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dobias: form 20%, the price implies 62%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMakara 2.20 / Dobias 1.615

Signal prob.42% / 58%

Edge (Dobias)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMakara4wins

AwayDobias6wins

7 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMakara100%3 of 3

AwayDobias85.7%6 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Makara3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10

S2Makara9Dobias1n = 10Makara took 9 of 10

S3Makara3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10

S4Makara6Dobias4n = 10Makara took 6 of 10

S5Makara2Dobias5n = 7Dobias took 5 of 7

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away550%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMakaraDobiasM − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match45.146.7−1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMakaraDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime507 / 1058 vs 449 / 82247.9%54.6%507 / 1058 vs 449 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.441.1per match

Setka Cup · #13281058

Makara2.20

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

Won last 3

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog44% won 149 of 336

Down 0–1, comes back25% 46 of 183

Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 89

Dobias1.61

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 08)

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite56% won 200 of 357

Up 2–0, closes it96% 74 of 77

Up 1–0, closes it79% 143 of 180

Michal Makara vs Ladislav Dobias 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Michal Makara vs Ladislav Dobias 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.