TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Rochowanski vs Michal Makara 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101171214116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:10 and never touched: 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeJan Rochowanski to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Rochowanski above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 83 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Jan Rochowanski at 55.1%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Rochowanski 7–10 Michal Makara Jan Rochowanski has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 05:1055.1%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.5pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rochowanski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Makara
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rochowanski 1713 vs Makara 1650
Rochowanski
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rochowanski 40% vs Makara 60%
Makara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rochowanski 70% vs Makara 40%
Rochowanski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rochowanski -2 · Makara -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Rochowanski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rochowanski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRochowanski 1.80 / Makara 1.909
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Rochowanski)-0.5pp
Setka Cup · #13266033
Rochowanski1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 20 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Makara1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 152 of 344
Down 0–1, comes back26% 48 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRochowanski5wins
AwayMakara5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRochowanski83.3%5 of 6
AwayMakara100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rochowanski6Makara4n = 10Rochowanski took 6 of 10
S2Rochowanski5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S3Rochowanski6Makara3n = 9Rochowanski took 6 of 9
S4Rochowanski3Makara4n = 7Makara took 4 of 7
S5Rochowanski1Makara2n = 3Makara took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRochowanskiMakaraR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.939.8+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRochowanskiMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 193 vs 509 / 106150.3%48%97 / 193 vs 509 / 1061Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RochowanskiRochowanski 1.80/Makara 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Rochowanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rochowanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 5 · 12:49J. Rochowanski5311101110113M. Makara4781271282
LAug 5 · 11:45J. Rochowanski4410811151M. Makara4612116173
WAug 4 · 09:15J. Rochowanski4011117113M. Makara32671181
WJul 9 · 08:23J. Rochowanski331111113M. Makara248790
LJul 9 · 05:15J. Rochowanski46611117112M. Makara47114811133
LJun 23 · 05:15J. Rochowanski4211121091M. Makara4251412113
WDec 18 · 06:15J. Rochowanski331111113M. Makara225980
LDec 11 · 07:15J. Rochowanski57811121792M. Makara601191415113
WOct 23 · 06:45J. Rochowanski3811511113M. Makara38911991
J. Rochowanski10
WOct 9 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.73511511113L. Rulc2.0011711892LOct 7 · 08:23V. Burylov1.912111113J. Rochowanski1.8019690LOct 7 · 07:15J. Rochowanski2.3811113582L. Dobias1.53691111113WOct 7 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.80131148143V. Burylov1.911191111122LOct 7 · 05:15J. Rochowanski2.3811118562M. Kocvara1.53951111113WOct 6 · 12:44P. Wasik1.678121191J. Rochowanski2.1011144113WOct 6 · 11:15M. Stibor1.801171171J. Rochowanski1.9113115113WOct 6 · 10:45J. Rochowanski2.6311111211113L. Dobias1.4451314892WOct 6 · 09:45J. Rochowanski3.00812411113P. Wasik1.36111011982WSep 30 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2.381111113M. Ullman1.539990
M. Makara10
LOct 6 · 16:14M. Makara2.10912691V. Grubr1.67111011113LOct 6 · 15:15V. Grubr1.611111113M. Makara2.204750WOct 6 · 14:45M. Makara2.25125115113L. Veigl1.57101181182WOct 6 · 13:45M. Makara2.63149116113J. Krames Sr1.44121191192WOct 6 · 08:48T. Liska2.1012791292M. Makara1.6710111110113LOct 6 · 07:45M. Makara1.739780T. Liska2.001111113WOct 6 · 06:15A. Snr2.00781191M. Makara1.7311119113LOct 6 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111113M. Makara2.005350LOct 5 · 12:13M. Makara2.0091080L. Rulc1.731112113LOct 5 · 11:45M. Makara1.83931171T. Liska1.8311116113
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