TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Makara vs Tomas Liska 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911311116711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Michal Makara at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 55–48 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 48 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Liska
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-48 in 103
Makara
Wrong
gap of 7 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1672 vs Liska 1647
Makara
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 60% vs Liska 40%
Makara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 50% vs Liska 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -1 · Liska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Makara) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 1.833 / Liska 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Makara)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13245553
Makara1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Liska1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara6wins
AwayLiska4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMakara leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara100%5 of 5
AwayLiska80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S2Makara5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S3Makara4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S4Makara3Liska4n = 7Liska took 4 of 7
S5Makara3Liska0n = 3Makara took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraLiskaM − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.540.7−1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime506 / 1056 vs 400 / 86447.9%46.3%506 / 1056 vs 400 / 864Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraMakara 1.83/Liska 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Liska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara361411113T. Liska2712870
WSep 29 · 13:09M. Makara49111197113T. Liska4498111152
WSep 29 · 11:00M. Makara4714611163T. Liska4512118141
LSep 25 · 09:15M. Makara376117131T. Liska4511811153
WSep 22 · 12:48M. Makara569111212123T. Liska521171410102
WSep 22 · 11:45M. Makara3811124113T. Liska388101191
WSep 17 · 12:18M. Makara47117117113T. Liska4341181192
LSep 17 · 10:45M. Makara30791131T. Liska4011117113
LSep 13 · 11:45M. Makara3114890T. Liska381611113
LSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara2461170T. Liska351113113
M. Makara10
LOct 5 · 12:13M. Makara2.0091080L. Rulc1.731112113LOct 5 · 10:15O. Kaderabek1.6741111113M. Makara2.10115781WOct 5 · 09:45L. Rulc1.9111221182M. Makara1.80311117113WOct 4 · 16:44M. Makara2.751171110113D. Gasparovic1.4071191282WOct 4 · 15:45M. Makara1.8311512113V. Burylov1.839111071LOct 4 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.44141311113M. Makara2.631215471WOct 4 · 13:45M. Zelinka1.731189121M. Makara2.0031111143LOct 4 · 08:14L. Rulc1.831111113M. Makara1.836980LOct 4 · 07:15L. Dobias1.67116119113M. Makara2.1081171182WOct 4 · 06:45M. Makara1.915111111123L. Rulc1.80117139102
T. Liska10
WOct 5 · 10:45L. Rulc1.61117111182T. Liska2.20911913113WOct 5 · 09:15O. Kaderabek1.6714881132T. Liska2.101211119113LOct 4 · 20:19S. Rejent1.8311911113T. Liska1.83911771LOct 4 · 19:15T. Liska1.40111011882O. Mezera2.75512311113LOct 4 · 18:15T. Liska2.108660S. Rejent1.671111113LOct 4 · 17:15T. Liska2.2081191252L. Veigl1.611151110113WOct 2 · 16:15T. Liska1.581111133O. Mezera2.2547110LOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara1.831411113T. Liska1.8312870LOct 2 · 14:45O. Mezera2.501181110113T. Liska1.5081131272WOct 2 · 13:15M. Vyskocil1.509118121T. Liska2.5011911143
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