TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Makara vs David Gasparovic 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1177111191012118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingMichal Makara above · David Gasparovic below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8
97 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 8–15 David Gasparovic Michal Makara has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Gasparovic beat Makara 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gasparovic form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 2.75 / Gasparovic 1.40
Setka Cup · #13244491
Makara2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 152 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back26% 46 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 87
Gasparovic1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 52 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara4wins
AwayGasparovic6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGasparovic leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara75%3 of 4
AwayGasparovic83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara4Gasparovic6n = 10Gasparovic took 6 of 10
S2Makara5Gasparovic5n = 10split evenly
S3Makara4Gasparovic5n = 9Gasparovic took 5 of 9
S4Makara1Gasparovic6n = 7Gasparovic took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraGasparovicM − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.240.3−4.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraGasparovicBasisWin rate · lifetime504 / 1053 vs 114 / 19247.9%59.4%504 / 1053 vs 114 / 192Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicMakara 2.75/Gasparovic 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–2
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 4 · 14:15M. Makara381215471D. Gasparovic49141311113
LSep 12 · 20:45M. Makara1541010D. Gasparovic341112113
WSep 12 · 17:15M. Makara331111113D. Gasparovic236890
LSep 11 · 14:45M. Makara29614451D. Gasparovic45111211113
WAug 30 · 10:15M. Makara53913128113D. Gasparovic481111101152
WJun 26 · 14:00M. Makara42126112113D. Gasparovic42101151152
LJun 19 · 16:33M. Makara311011371D. Gasparovic3912511113
WJun 19 · 15:30M. Makara44111011123D. Gasparovic367127101
LMay 31 · 11:00M. Makara4111107131D. Gasparovic4791211153
M. Makara10
WOct 4 · 15:45M. Makara1.8311512113V. Burylov1.839111071LOct 4 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.44141311113M. Makara2.631215471WOct 4 · 13:45M. Zelinka1.731189121M. Makara2.0031111143LOct 4 · 08:14L. Rulc1.831111113M. Makara1.836980LOct 4 · 07:15L. Dobias1.67116119113M. Makara2.1081171182WOct 4 · 06:45M. Makara1.915111111123L. Rulc1.80117139102LOct 4 · 05:45M. Makara2.00691121A. Snr1.7311119113LOct 3 · 08:13M. Makara1.61101271182O. Mezera2.201210117113LOct 3 · 07:45M. Makara2.0087100L. Veigl1.731111123LOct 3 · 06:15J. Krames Sr1.5391111113M. Makara2.38118261
D. Gasparovic10
WOct 4 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.83711115113M. Zelinka1.8311861152WOct 4 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.44141311113M. Makara2.631215471LOct 4 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.8313101091V. Burylov1.83111212113LSep 28 · 12:50M. Zelinka1.8311126153D. Gasparovic1.8351011131WSep 28 · 11:15D. Gasparovic1.30591111113L. Veigl3.4011119992LSep 28 · 10:15D. Gasparovic1.801276121M. Zelinka1.91101111143WSep 28 · 09:15D. Gasparovic1.731111113J. Krames Sr2.007880WSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa1.67116791D. Gasparovic2.1091111113LSep 27 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.679101181J. Krames Sr2.1011127113LSep 27 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.9154111172J. Chalupa1.8011116993
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