TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Rulc vs Tomas Liska 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1197111191113811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:33 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Rulc at 58.1%
101 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 70–59 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 59 of their 129 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3358.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rulc
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
70-59 in 129
Rulc
Wrong
gap of 11 in 129, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1630 vs Liska 1647
Liska
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 20% vs Liska 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 40% vs Liska 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc -1 · Liska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Rulc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.615 / Liska 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Rulc)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245629
Rulc1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite54% won 87 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it67% 63 of 94
Liska2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 85 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRulc4wins
AwayLiska6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLiska leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc50%3 of 6
AwayLiska75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc6Liska4n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S2Rulc5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S3Rulc6Liska4n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S4Rulc0Liska8n = 8Liska took 8 of 8
S5Rulc3Liska3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRulcLiskaR − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.942.2−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 698 vs 400 / 86449.9%46.3%348 / 698 vs 400 / 864Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.61/Liska 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Liska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 10:45L. Rulc48117111182T. Liska53911913113
LSep 29 · 09:30L. Rulc4411611792T. Liska44711411113
LSep 25 · 12:24L. Rulc34711881T. Liska3911611113
WSep 25 · 11:15L. Rulc521110137113T. Liska47712111162
LSep 22 · 09:45L. Rulc236980T. Liska331111113
WSep 14 · 08:23L. Rulc331111113T. Liska257990
LSep 14 · 07:15L. Rulc3711510111T. Liska4371112133
WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc52121189123T. Liska461041111102
WAug 29 · 10:30L. Rulc51911119113T. Liska4311981142
LAug 17 · 08:45L. Rulc4581111692T. Liska49118811113
L. Rulc10
LOct 5 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.7311117113L. Rulc2.00741141LOct 5 · 09:45L. Rulc1.9111221182M. Makara1.80311117113WOct 4 · 08:14L. Rulc1.831111113M. Makara1.836980LOct 4 · 07:45A. Snr2.0071111113L. Rulc1.73115661LOct 4 · 06:45M. Makara1.915111111123L. Rulc1.80117139102LOct 4 · 05:15L. Dobias1.80121311113L. Rulc1.911411691LOct 3 · 20:54L. Dobias1.8091112113L. Rulc1.911131081WOct 3 · 19:15M. Kocvara2.2036111162L. Rulc1.61111196113LOct 3 · 18:45L. Rulc2.0012891272L. Dobias1.7310111110113WOct 3 · 17:45L. Rulc2.101112113V. Burylov1.6791070
T. Liska10
WOct 5 · 09:15O. Kaderabek1.6714881132T. Liska2.101211119113LOct 4 · 20:19S. Rejent1.8311911113T. Liska1.83911771LOct 4 · 19:15T. Liska1.40111011882O. Mezera2.75512311113LOct 4 · 18:15T. Liska2.108660S. Rejent1.671111113LOct 4 · 17:15T. Liska2.2081191252L. Veigl1.611151110113WOct 2 · 16:15T. Liska1.581111133O. Mezera2.2547110LOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara1.831411113T. Liska1.8312870LOct 2 · 14:45O. Mezera2.501181110113T. Liska1.5081131272WOct 2 · 13:15M. Vyskocil1.509118121T. Liska2.5011911143WOct 1 · 08:43T. Liska1.7371111123M. Ullman2.001176101
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