TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Kaderabek vs Lukas Rulc 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114711114––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:01 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kaderabek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Ondrej Kaderabek at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 12–14 Lukas Rulc Ondrej Kaderabek has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0154.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kaderabek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-14 in 26
Rulc
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1669 vs Rulc 1641
Kaderabek
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 40% vs Rulc 20%
Kaderabek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 40% vs Rulc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek +1 · Rulc -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kaderabek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 1.727 / Rulc 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaderabek)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245334
Kaderabek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 42 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Rulc2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaderabek6wins
AwayRulc4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKaderabek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabek80%4 of 5
AwayRulc60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaderabek5Rulc5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaderabek6Rulc4n = 10Kaderabek took 6 of 10
S4Kaderabek5Rulc0n = 5Kaderabek took 5 of 5
S5Kaderabek1Rulc2n = 3Rulc took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaderabekRulcK − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.335.8+2.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 394 vs 349 / 69851.3%50%202 / 394 vs 349 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekKaderabek 1.73/Rulc 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 11:45O. Kaderabek361312113L. Rulc26111050
LJun 29 · 11:15O. Kaderabek4969111582L. Rulc521111613113
LJun 21 · 10:45O. Kaderabek158250L. Rulc331111113
WJun 8 · 06:45O. Kaderabek501011711113L. Rulc4312311982
WJun 3 · 05:15O. Kaderabek4251115113L. Rulc401191371
WMay 14 · 06:45O. Kaderabek331111113L. Rulc175570
WApr 7 · 08:13O. Kaderabek331111113L. Rulc166640
LApr 7 · 07:15O. Kaderabek581112171172L. Rulc56814194113
WMar 16 · 11:45O. Kaderabek4513811133L. Rulc4211119111
LMar 3 · 13:23O. Kaderabek227960L. Rulc331111113
O. Kaderabek10
WOct 5 · 10:15O. Kaderabek1.6741111113M. Makara2.10115781LOct 5 · 09:15O. Kaderabek1.6714881132T. Liska2.101211119113LOct 4 · 12:23M. Kocvara2.0011912113O. Kaderabek1.738111031WOct 4 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.801011115113M. Kocvara1.9112441182LOct 4 · 10:15O. Kaderabek2.50410141192L. Heinzl1.501112125113WOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181LOct 2 · 08:23M. Vyskocil2.501111113O. Kaderabek1.509390LOct 2 · 07:15L. Adam2.00119117113O. Kaderabek1.7361171182LOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.5771714123M. Vyskocil2.25111512101
L. Rulc10
LOct 5 · 10:45L. Rulc1.61117111182T. Liska2.20911913113LOct 5 · 09:45L. Rulc1.9111221182M. Makara1.80311117113WOct 4 · 08:14L. Rulc1.831111113M. Makara1.836980LOct 4 · 07:45A. Snr2.0071111113L. Rulc1.73115661LOct 4 · 06:45M. Makara1.915111111123L. Rulc1.80117139102LOct 4 · 05:15L. Dobias1.80121311113L. Rulc1.911411691LOct 3 · 20:54L. Dobias1.8091112113L. Rulc1.911131081WOct 3 · 19:15M. Kocvara2.2036111162L. Rulc1.61111196113LOct 3 · 18:45L. Rulc2.0012891272L. Dobias1.7310111110113WOct 3 · 17:45L. Rulc2.101112113V. Burylov1.6791070
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